FPI sell-off continues; Rs 3,400 cr pulled out in just 3 trading sessions in November
The recent outflow of funds by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) from the Indian equity markets, amounting to over Rs 3,400 crore in the initial three trading sessions of November, follows a pattern of consecutive withdrawals observed in the preceding months. The ongoing trend is attributed to various factors, including concerns surrounding increasing interest rates and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The data reflecting FPIs’ substantial pullouts of Rs 24,548 crore in October and Rs 14,767 crore in September underscores the cautious approach adopted by these investors in response to the prevailing market conditions and external uncertainties. This shift in sentiment follows a significant period of FPI inflows into the Indian equity markets, with investments amounting to Rs 1.74 lakh crore recorded from March to August.
However, the outlook for future FPI activities appears to be influenced by recent developments, as the primary catalyst for the selling trend, namely the surge in bond yields, has exhibited a reversal. The indication of a more accommodative stance by the US Federal Reserve in its November meeting has the potential to alleviate concerns and contribute to a more favorable investment climate for FPIs in the Indian equity markets.
While market conditions continue to evolve, the reversal in bond yield trends could potentially support a shift in investor sentiment, leading to a more optimistic outlook for FPI participation in the Indian equity markets in the coming months.
The recent reversal in bond yields, attributed to the nuanced dovish commentary from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, has instigated a notable shift in market dynamics, prompting a renewed assessment of the interest rate trajectory. Powell’s emphasis on the resilience of inflationary expectations, despite the presence of elevated inflation, has influenced market perceptions, leading to the interpretation that the rate hiking cycle may be reaching its conclusion.
In light of this nuanced stance from the Federal Reserve, market observers such as VK Vijayakumar, the Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, have highlighted the potential implications for global market trends, including the recent selling spree observed among Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) in the Indian equity markets. The data from depositories, reflecting FPIs’ sales of shares amounting to Rs 3,412 crore during the period of November 1-3, underscores the cautious approach adopted by investors amid the evolving market dynamics and macroeconomic considerations.
The continuous selling trend observed since the beginning of September points to the prevailing uncertainty and cautious sentiment within the investor community. However, as the impact of the recent Federal Reserve commentary continues to unfold, it may contribute to a reassessment of market dynamics, potentially influencing the investment decisions and strategies of FPIs in the Indian equity markets in the coming months.
“There has been a noticeable increase in US Treasury bond yields, along with mounting geopolitical tensions brought on by the conflict between Israel and Hamas,” stated Himanshu Srivastava, Associate Director, Manager Research, Morningstar Investment Adviser India.
Bharat Dhawan’s assessment of the global landscape highlights the increased level of uncertainty compounded by multiple factors, including concerns surrounding the possibility of a global economic slowdown, mounting inflationary pressures, and the emergence of geopolitical conflicts. These intertwined challenges have contributed to a heightened sense of caution and strategic decision-making within the global financial community.
In light of the prevailing market uncertainties, experts anticipate a heightened emphasis on the pursuit of safe-haven assets, including traditional safe-haven investments such as gold and the US dollar. These assets are often perceived as stable and reliable during periods of heightened market volatility and economic turbulence, serving as a hedge against potential risks and preserving capital value in the face of market fluctuations.
In this context, the continued interest in the debt market, as evidenced by the inflow of Rs 1,984 crore in the period under review, following the significant investment of Rs 6,381 crore in October, reflects investors’ ongoing search for stability and security within the financial landscape. This inclination toward debt investments underscores the importance of fixed-income instruments as a key component of diversified investment portfolios, offering a level of stability and income generation in times of market uncertainty.
The tactical shift observed among foreign investors, as indicated by Morningstar’s Srivastava, emphasizes a strategic reallocation of funds toward Indian debt instruments in the short term, with the anticipation of redirecting these investments back into the equity markets when conditions become more favorable. This dynamic approach reflects a cautious yet adaptive investment strategy aimed at navigating the evolving market landscape and optimizing portfolio performance based on prevailing market trends.
Furthermore, the recent inclusion of Indian Government Securities (G-Sec) in the JP Morgan Government Bond Index Emerging Markets (GBI-EM), as highlighted by Sahil Dhingra of Alvez Capital, has significantly contributed to fostering greater foreign fund participation in the Indian bond markets. This development has enhanced the attractiveness of Indian debt instruments, encouraging heightened investor interest and facilitating increased capital inflows into the debt market.
Amid these developments, the substantial investments made by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) in both the equity and debt markets in India this year underline the continued confidence and interest of foreign investors in the country’s economic prospects and growth potential. The anticipated positive outlook for sectors such as frontline banking, automobiles, capital goods, and select mid-cap segments in IT and real estate further reinforces the optimism surrounding the Indian market and its diverse investment opportunities.
