As we continue to battle coronavirus, a lot of people have been trying to figure out what the worst-case position could be, but the truth remains that nobody has a clear answer and many are trying to figure out what is going to be the number of cases in India, a few months from now by April 2021 or by the end of 2021 and the correct answer is we can’t tell because it depends on several factors: like is there going to be a vaccine, how effective are measures taken by the government going to be, with a large number of people start to practice social distancing and the use of masks, will they be enhancing testing and contact tracing. There is research that has been done by MIT researchers which is in a very initial stage but gives us very shocking news.
MIT researchers have made a particular point that is very scary is in saying that India could become one of the worst affected countries in the world with coronavirus. India might see something as high as 2.87 lakh cases per day. But we do have to judge that with what the reality today is, India is already the third-worst countries in the world when it comes to new cases and the new cases continue to rise, as the last 24 hours witness the highest ever with 30,000 cases. We do not know which root this will take but what it indicates is how bad the situation could get. It illustrates how some of the states which have been taking it back, not worrying so much like these days because they don’t have coronavirus should take it into account. States like Kolkata or Tamil Nadu or Andhra Pradesh with high rise or even Uttar Pradesh and Bihar and others which have not have to deal with, people should take note of what the worse case situation could be and then we should try and make sure that this doesn’t come to pass so this MIT researchers report causing a lot of concern today, but this seems to be a warning saying that it doesn’t necessarily need to be this case if we continue to take the proportions that we are taking.
Researchers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology claimed that the number of COVID-19 cases recorded per day in India may rise to 2.87 lakh by early 2021 if a vaccine or treatment isn’t developed soon. Although the USA is currently the worst hit in the world, the team from MIT’s school of management says that India will surpass the US soon. According to their prediction, daily new cases will be second highest in the US by Feb 2021 at 95,000 per day followed by South Africa, Iran, and Indonesia. The same study also claims that the actual number of cases is 12 times higher and the death rate is 50% higher than the reported numbers even so all nations are still well below herd immunity levels.
Another recent study has been done by the Indian Institute of science which showcases the worst-case scenario projection. A team at the Indian Institute of science had estimated a worst-case scenario projection predicting India to have a 35 lakhs cases by September beginning. By the end of March 2021, India is estimated to have 1.4 lakh active cases with 1.88 lakh deaths adding to a total of 37.4 lakh cases. During September second week, India is expected to hit a peak of 4.78 lakh active cases.
According to the projection of the worst-case scenario, Maharashtra is said to have 6.3 lakh total cases with 2.1 lakh active cases, while Delhi will see 2.4 lakh and 81,000 cases. On the other hand, Tamil Nadu to reach 1.6 lakh and 53,000 with Gujarat estimated for 1.8 lakh and 61,000. The research team led by Prof Sashikumar G, Prof Deepak S by Indian institute of science has predicted that there will be a record of 1.4 lakh deaths, out of which 25,000 will be from Maharashtra 9,700 from Delhi, 7,300 from Gujarat, 8,500 from Karnataka and Tamil Nadu with 6,300 deaths.
The worst-case scenario projection shows a rise of 1.2 crore cases(including 30.2 lakh active) and 5 lakh deaths by the 1st of November with Karnataka estimated to have 7.2 lakh cases with 1.9 lakh active cases and 30,400 deaths. But the scarier statistics show that there might be 2.9 crore and 10 lakh cases by the start of 2021 with Karnataka peaking with 10.8 lakh and 78,900 cases. We can see from the worst-case scenario projection that there is no predicted of any peak for India until the end of March 2021. At that time, it is said India will have around 82 lakh active cases and it will be still growing while 28 lakh deaths totaling to 6.18 crore of cases reported till that date. Even a separate analysis for various states has been done. Many epidemiologists have suggested for projections of states to be based on current trends in the state as virus peak will occur at a different time for different areas. Comparing with the parameters of the national trend, the statewide results show the performance of the respective state with the national trend.
Sashi and Deepak explained that the state numbers are computed with the national parameters in each scenario, to compare the actual data of the state with the national trend. They said “Since this is an active situation with regular ongoing interventions and policy changes from State and Central governments, we do not predict each state individually.”
The projection of the current trend by the model shows that India would hit a peak of 9.7 lakh active case during the last week of October. By the end of March 2021, deaths are to be seen as many as 4.5 lakh with active cases being around 2.1 lakh for total cases of 91 lakh, reports the team. Sashi has also added that “The proposed model is a paradigm shift in mathematical modeling of infectious diseases. This modeling framework introduces a multi-dimensional equation to predict the spread of pandemics with insights into the severity of infection, duration of infection, population age, etc.”
All these studies of worst-case scenario have no definite measure but it does aid us in providing useful data which could be used as a warning sign to take appropriate measures. We do not know how the coronavirus will leave the earth. Will it be like Spanish flu? Will it cease on its own or will it take a transformation to become deadlier and attack even more? As day by day, the entire world is seeing only new headlines being formed, records being broken, so either a vaccine needs to be formed or virus needs to lose its sting soon if we have to save any more lives. But these studies of insight predictions do aid in planning to tackle these situations. And all we can do is wish for all these predictions to be a prediction and hope we could have this deadly virus under control soon.