Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is undertaking a critical visit to the United States, where he will present Kyiv’s strategy for ending the prolonged conflict with Russian forces to President Joe Biden and his potential election rivals, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

During this pivotal trip, which coincides with the United Nations General Assembly meeting, Zelenskyy is urging Ukraine’s allies to unite for a “shared victory for a truly just peace.”

His goal is to influence U.S. policy on the war, regardless of the outcome of the November elections.

Zelenskyy plans to outline his “Victory Plan” to Biden and the two leading candidates, asserting that Western support could exert significant psychological pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin, potentially compelling him to pursue diplomatic solutions.

“The Victory Plan envisages quick and concrete steps by our strategic partners from now until the end of December,” Zelenskyy stated.

He emphasized the necessity of peace, rejecting any notion of a frozen conflict that would merely postpone further aggression from Russia.

However, the two sides remain entrenched in their positions– Zelensky seeks Ukraine’s NATO and EU membership alongside the complete withdrawal of Russian forces, while Putin insists on territorial concessions from Ukraine as a precondition for peace talks.

‘Zelensky’s visit comes at a precarious moment for Ukraine, with the potential for a shift in U.S. support following the upcoming presidential election.

Trump, in a recent debate, hesitated to clarify his stance on Ukraine’s fight against Russia, suggesting he would seek to end the conflict before taking office if victorious. In contrast, Harris criticized Trump’s approach, arguing it would lead to Kyiv’s capitulation.

Amid these political uncertainties, Ukraine has showcased its military capabilities with bold operations, including a daring incursion into Russia’s Kursk region and significant drone strikes, even causing explosions at a Russian munitions depot.

Meanwhile, Russia has intensified its military efforts, ramping up drone and missile attacks and reinforcing its eastern offensive.

As Zelensky aims to solidify international support, the bets are higher than ever for both Ukraine and its allies in the face of ongoing hostilities.

Biden’s Decision

U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has indicated that President Biden is keen to discuss Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s “comprehensive strategy for success in this war” against Russia.

Zelenskyy has emphasized that his plan, though concise, relies heavily on Biden’s decisions rather than those of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Zelenskyy outlined key components of his strategy, which include establishing Ukraine’s role in the global security framework, making tactical decisions on the battlefield—including operations in the Kursk region—enhancing Ukraine’s military capabilities, and boosting its economy.

Military analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko noted that Zelenskyy may seek long-term assurances of support extending into 2025, as well as a declaration of continuity for U.S. assistance beyond Biden’s presidency. “This could be a pivotal moment, both politically and militarily,” he remarked.

During his discussions, Zelensky is expected to reiterate his request for Biden to authorize long-range strikes into Russia, a move that Moscow has warned would implicate NATO directly in the conflict.

Ukraine aims to target military installations up to 300 km (186 miles) inside Russia, such as airfields housing attack helicopters and warplanes that launch glide bombs. However, Washington has suggested that altering these restrictions may not significantly change the dynamics on the battlefield.

With Russia occupying 18% of Ukrainian territory and maintaining an offensive posture since last October, it recorded a notable surge in advances in August.

Ukraine’s foothold in the Kursk region could serve as a potential bargaining chip in future negotiations or as leverage against any attempts to freeze the conflict.

Nonetheless, Kyiv faces significant challenges in holding this territory against a much larger adversary.

Meanwhile, Russia is making strides toward capturing the transport hub of Pokrovsk, which could severely disrupt Ukrainian logistics and create new avenues for attack.

Kovalenko underlined that Russia likely aims to seize Pokrovsk by the year’s end, potentially amplifying pressure on Ukraine and steering discussions toward peace negotiations on Moscow’s terms.

Challenges Ahead

Ukraine aims to advance its peace blueprint at a second international summit later this year, with plans to invite Russia at the request of other participants.

The first summit, held in Switzerland in June, notably excluded Moscow and saw absences from China and several nations in the Global South.

President Zelensky insists that his summit initiative represents the only viable path to peace, recently criticizing a Chinese-Brazilian proposal as “destructive” for merely calling for de-escalation and dialogue without requiring Russian withdrawal.

As Ukraine braces for its toughest winter yet in the two-and-a-half-year conflict—compounded by Russian strikes that have severely damaged energy infrastructure—it also confronts significant economic hurdles.

The government plans its first wartime tax increases to address a funding gap of approximately $12.2 billion for its military this year.

Zelensky made an unannounced visit to a Pennsylvania munitions plant under tight security, where 155mm artillery shells essential to Ukraine’s war effort are manufactured.

The plant has supplied more than 3 million of these shells from the U.S., which are used in howitzer systems capable of hitting targets up to 20 miles (32 km) away.

Additionally, Zelenskyy has been urging the U.S. and its allies to permit the use of Western-supplied long-range weapons to strike military targets deep within Russia.

However, Biden has so far resisted these requests, with Moscow warning that such authorization would equate to NATO being “at war” with Russia.

Zelensky’s visit coincides with U.S. preparations for a new $375 million military aid package for Ukraine, which is expected to include patrol boats and additional ammunition for high-mobility artillery rocket systems (HIMARS), as well as 155mm and 105mm artillery shells.

Public Opinion

Public opinion in Ukraine reflects a complex situation.

As of May 2024, about 32% of Ukrainians expressed willingness to consider certain territorial concessions to end the war, a significant increase from just 10% in May 2022.

However, most envision any such arrangement as a temporary postponement of territorial liberation rather than a permanent loss.

The prevailing demand for any peace deal remains the need for robust security guarantees, such as NATO membership.

Despite negative trends, Ukrainians remain optimistic about their future, aspiring to join the European Union and secure adequate security assurances.