All efforts to develop new drugs are like launching a ship on the ocean to hunt for wealth. Over the years, we have made improvements to the hull and mast, better maps, and more experienced sailors. But even so, the ship was turned away or the new land was barren. Sometimes, strong wind or storm drags the ship and its crew into the water.
The Trump administration has embarked on one of the most challenging and ambitious vaccines development efforts in history. Operation Warp Speed may provide coronavirus vaccination within a few years that is usually required. By doing so, it can save and protect the lives of hundreds of thousands of people against COVID-19 and economies around the world.
However, the competent authority has also provided a timeline for the vaccine, which applies to almost all experienced pharmaceutical history.
President Donald Trump said on Tuesday night that the United States government may start distributing COVID-19 vaccines as early as October, which is far more optimistic than his own public health officials’ estimates.
Trump said at the White House press conference on Wednesday: As you know, we are very close to the vaccine, and I think it is much closer than most people want to say. We believe we can begin most probably in October. So, once it’s announced, we can commence. That will start in mid-October. It may be a little later.
"We're on track to deliver and distribute the vaccine in a very, very safe and effective manner." pic.twitter.com/17QGBULg0D— The White House (@WhiteHouse) September 16, 2020
He said that the United States has manufactured all the necessary supplies and that by the end of this year, health officials will be able to distribute more than 90 million doses of vaccine. The vaccines for COVID-19 treatment can start to be distributed in October or November, but he said: I don’t think it will be much later than now.
Earlier in the day, Dr. Robert Redfield told members of the Senate hearing that he hopes the vaccine production will start in November or December, but the quantity is limited, and those who need it most should be vaccinated first such as medical staff and the elderly. Dr. Robert Redfield, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, stated that it will take about ‘6 to 9 months’ to vaccinate the entire American public, and the United States will be able to return to ‘normal life‘ in the third quarter of the year 2021.
When President Donald Trump said that the vaccine might be ready in three to four weeks, on Wednesday the next day, Paul Mango said that every American can get the vaccine before the end of March 2021.
The Deputy chief of staff for policy at the Department of Health and Human Services, Paul Mango, and one of the senior leaders of the Warp Speed program stated that there are sufficient doses in production and the trials are proceeding at a certain rate, so the combination of these two methods will allow us to vaccinate every American by the end of the 1st quarter of the year 2021.
A few hours later, Kayleigh McEnany, the White House Press Secretary stated that we do believe it will be widely accessible by the end of this year, although it also mentioned the dose of the vaccine being produced at the time, rather than the actual distribution.
McEnany’s and Mango’s remarks were opposed by Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, who told Congress, on Wednesday, that most Americans will like to have access to the vaccine by late spring or summer next year.
Other senior and top health officials of the United States stated that it will be impossible to prepare a vaccine until the end of this year, and it will take longer to expand access to the more than 200 million people living in the United States.
Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, stated: It’s encouraging to do this. But I don’t think people will be vaccinated until the second half of the year 2021. It completely depends on what the drug (vaccine) is.
The United States has launched many ships. Modena Inc, Pfizer, and AstraZeneca have heeded out at a quick clip. Early data looks promising, and late-stage experiments of tens of thousands of volunteers can provide a quick response.
However, to deploy vaccines widely before the beginning of next year, it is necessary to keep the correct approach in mind:
• Effective vaccines must be one of the handfuls that are in last stage trials.
• There will be no major safety hazards or delays.
• Clinical trials must produce strong evidence.
• FDA must accept the evidence and review it quickly.
• One of the vaccines must work.
• Manufacturing has to go near flawlessly.
• Hundreds of millions of doses must be shipped across the country, which may require a certain degree of cryogenic storage.
Even in the quest for vaccination that the United States conducts each year, it is difficult to achieve the goal of widespread absorption. According to the CDC, only 38% of Americans actually received the vaccine during the 2017-2018 flu season. Many people used it at work, pharmacies, schools, or hospitals, etc. These places are largely closed, or places that many Americans avoid due to the pandemic.
In addition to the need to bring reasonable returns to shareholders, there are also some rules that have a loose understanding of the operations of pharmaceutical companies.
The first rule is not to kill anyone. The second is to help people live longer and better lives. The third is not to be sued by securities regulators.
This is a set of simple goals that often encounter the cruel reality of drug development. Insiders often sum up with the oft-repeated pearls, science is difficult. Each year, several pharmaceutical industries spend billions of dollars on failure. Drugs seem like a miracle, so it turns out to be a hallucination. Most of the money that companies invest in research is spent on projects that stop because they either do not help people or may harm them.
The result is that most companies – although there are exceptions – are conservative in their statements. Some have been preparing vaccines for COVID-19. Merck & Co. has quietly bet that the first shot on the line will not necessarily be the best and its experimental vaccine may become an early winner. Over the years, some form of vaccines may also be needed, as well as giving ample room for further improvements, such as better protection, longer-lasting immunity, and more certain safety.
To this end, earlier this month, the National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine issued a report summarizing expert advice on the distribution of coronavirus vaccines. On page 11, it cited an important lesson from the past mass vaccination efforts: Promising too little and delivering too much.
Violating the first half of those recommendations, the best hope now is for the United States to fulfill the second proposal.