65% of the people are expected to get exemption in the lockdown 2.0. After this concession, work will start in about 45% of the economy. This will help reduce the daily deficit of GDP, but keeping the economy back on track will continue to be challenging. The government has extended the entire lockdown in the country till May 3. However, from April 20, some important sectors will be exempted with conditions like taking proper precautions, maintaining social distance. The PM also said that if one case comes up due to negligence of industries, work will be halted there and then.
Sonura Verma, economist at Nomura said, “We estimate that a partial waiver of the lockdown could restore the economy to about 45% after April 20 compared to the original lockdown. From March 24 to April 14, only 25% of the economy was functional in the initial lockdown. “
1-Villages and farming services and industries
Agriculture sector contributes 34.64 percent of the country’s total GDP. Brick kilns, food processing industry, cold storage, warehouse service, fish meal, maintenance, processing, packaging, marketing, hatchery, commercial aquarium, fishery products, fish seed, tea, coffee, rubber, cashew processing, packaging, milk collection, processing, manufacturing and distribution of maize will begin.
Even after the work starts, loss suffered by farmers will be difficult to recover
Devendra Sharma, an expert on agricultural affairs, said that the introduction of farming and allied services in Lockdown 2.0 will provide 50 per cent of the work because half of the population is dependent on agriculture. The government is buying the rabi crop. If the farmers get money from this, then production will increase which will help in bringing the entire economy back on track. However, even then it will be difficult to recover the losses suffered by the farmers.
2- Permission to start construction in real estate and all industrial projects
The construction and real estate sector accounts for 7.74 percent of the country’s GDP. Construction will be allowed to start in real estate projects and all industrial projects. However, even in urban areas only they will be allowed to construct, where workers are available on site. This can avert the employment crisis hovering over migrant workers to a great extent.
Great relief to labourers
CAD Rakesh Yadav of Space India Group believes that giving a concession in construction of roads, flyovers, etc., including real estate, will bring great relief to thousands of labourers sitting unemployed. It will also overcome the rampant poverty and hunger stricken days these labourers have gone through. Real estate will be relieved that it will be able to build the project. Despite this, increasing sales of homes will not be easy. The government will have to give concession to developers and home buyers to build trust among the common people.
3- Retail, e-commerce sites, grocery, ration shops
CAT General Secretary Praveen Khandelwal says that the biggest benefit the retail shops will get from exemption in lockdown 2.0 is that they no more will have to take the special pass. Around 20 to 25 lakh shops across the country can be opened because of this.
If exemption to e-commerce sites is given, the risk of spreading the disease can increase. The government needs to reconsider this decision.
Grocery, ration shops, fruit-vegetable carts, sanitation items, poultry, meat, fish and fodder shops will be opened.
4- Industries associated with manufacture of essential goods
16.57 per cent of the GDP is contributed by the industries making essential goods. Production will start in companies related to medical equipment, IT hardware, mining, jute industry. In addition, companies in Special Economic Zone, Industrial Township will also get an exemption. Those people working in these areas will get a chance to return to their work. According to Arun Kumar, an economist at the Institute of Social Sciences, the problems of the general public will be less, but the difficulties of the industry will also have to be taken into consideration.
5- Data, call center and IT service
Offices with data, call centers and IT services working for government activities will open. Along with this, electricians, plumbers, motor mechanics, carpenters, couriers, DTH and cable service workers will also be able to start their services.