We are all fighting a pandemic that is reaching and infecting thousands of people every day. India has single-handedly broken the record and now ranked at the top three spots, globally. Without a vaccine treatment, it is unmissable that we as a whole nation will be able to fight off the virus. But as studies have said, most patients are coming out as asymptomatic and that is showing a new sign towards a ray of hope.
According to the MIIT study, the number of cases reported per day by India may surge to around 2.87 lakhs by the Mid-March of 2021. If a vaccine or a treatment is not available soon then India may see dying numbers right in front of everyone’s eyes. The study has even warned that if the unlock continues then more and more people are likely to become affected by the strains of the virus.
In their Analysis, titled ‘Estimating the spread of COVID-19′, the School of Management has predicted that the greatest may be recorded by India by winter’s end in 2021. Further, with no vaccine or therapy, over 18 lakhs and instance deaths might be reported worldwide by spring next year (March-May).
The analysis maintained even maintained that the studies and the numbers are drawn on a speculative report and that nothing is proven right now. If India manages to surpass the spread of the coronavirus, the numbers which are mentioned in the study can see a drastic change. Using the data given and the calculations done on the spread of the virus with the cases reported per day, the studies were able to estimate that around 84 nations would have the same fate if there is no treatment available till next year.
“We utilize a multi-country Altered SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and COVID-19 in 84 nations. Community transmission is tracked by the model, excluding the travel system and rather estimating the date of introduction of individual zero to each nation,” the analysis read.
Although with Almost 3 million Instances, the United States is now the worst-affected from the pandemic on the planet, the investigators have predicted that India will surpass it. The Second-highest amount of new instances (95,000 instances daily), followed closely by South Africa (21,000 instances daily), Iran (17,000 instances daily), and Indonesia (13,000 cases daily), the research indicated.
The studies have even counted out the Infection Fatality Rate for different countries and how well they are doing. The Infection Fatality Rate refers to the death of a person after they have contracted the virus. There are a ton of factors through which the IFR can be calculated. It is the age of a person and along with the same, the weight or the BMI Calculations along with morbidity or another disease which have affected that person. The researchers have found out that the natural IFR of the disease is around 0.68 percent which is close to negligible. On the other hand, the IFR can vary among different nations. The IFR in the USA is at 0.99 percent and the IFR of IRAN is around 0.56 percent.
The study pointed out the importance of early and aggressive studying in containing the spread of the virus and also controlling the fatality rate. But it goes on to state the value of testing erodes as the pandemic develops more acute and it becomes increasingly difficult to conduct contact tracing to test and isolate individuals who have come into contact with the infected individual.