Abandoned By America, Europe Faces Dizzying Days After Trump’s ‘You’re On Your Own’ Doctrine. Can The EU Save Itself?
Europe is a continent awakened!
When Donald Trump swept back into the White House for his second term, there was as much disbelief as there was anticipation across the globe. While many expected disruption, few in Europe imagined the diplomatic shockwave that would hit them just months into his presidency. The message from Washington was abrupt, and for many in Brussels, Berlin, and Paris, it cut like a knife – “You’re on your own.”
In just three dizzying months, the Trump administration has unraveled decades of post-war American foreign policy. The shift has been seismic – a declared rollback of the U.S. military footprint in Europe, a push for a rapid resolution to the war in Ukraine (even if it comes at the cost of ceding Ukrainian land to Moscow) and an unapologetic redirection of U.S. strategic focus toward the Indo-Pacific.
Unfortunately, this isn’t a theoretical future anymore. The transatlantic alliance, forged in the ashes of World War II and solidified through the Cold War, is facing a potential fracture. Exactly 80 years after Allied forces forced Nazi Germany’s surrender, Europe finds itself staring at a question it hasn’t asked in generations: Can we defend ourselves without America?
“Europe has been living for 80 years in a situation in which peace was taken for granted. And apparently, peace was offered for free,” said Roberto Cingolani, former Italian minister and now CEO of defense giant Leonardo. “Now, all of a sudden, after the invasion of Ukraine, we realize that peace must be defended.”
That realization has triggered an urgent, if belated, militarization effort across Europe’s NATO member states. The continent has the financial muscle and manpower to begin plugging the vacuum Washington may leave behind but it’s a race against time considering, years of underinvestment in defense during the post-Cold War decades have left much of Europe ill-prepared for high-intensity conflict.
Troop numbers have declined, weapons systems have aged, and logistical capacities have weakened. Even with recent injections of funding, the gap between rhetoric and readiness remains significant.
Western Europe’s largest powers – Britain, France, and Germany – have begun reversing years of stagnation in defense spending, a trend that flatlined throughout the 2010s but the effects of this surge are not immediate. Reviving depleted armies, retraining forces, modernizing arsenals, all take time, coordination, and political will.
According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, “the high level of attrition in the Ukraine War has painfully illustrated European countries’ current shortcomings.”
In contrast, Eastern European states, particularly those with a visceral memory of Russian aggression, are moving with greater urgency. Poland has emerged as NATO’s poster child, at least in Trump’s eyes.
“We see Poland as the model ally on the continent: willing to invest not just in their defense, but in our shared defense and the defense of the continent,” said Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth during a high-profile visit to Warsaw.
But make no mistake, Poland’s motivations stem from its own historical anxieties, not a desire to curry favor with Washington. For years, Warsaw has sounded the alarm about the Russian threat. Unlike some of its Western neighbors, Poland has consistently backed Ukraine’s sovereignty and warned against appeasement.
The U.S. still maintains about 80,000 troops in Europe, a shadow of the nearly half a million stationed there during the Cold War and their presence remains symbolically and strategically critical. These troops not only serve as a forward line of defense but also as trainers, nuclear custodians, and logistical hubs for broader NATO operations.
Most U.S. military infrastructure in Europe – concentrated in Germany, Italy, and Poland – has for decades served as a deterrent to Russian aggression and a launchpad for global power projection. As the Center for European Policy Analysis notes, these bases form a “crucial foundation for NATO operations, regional deterrence, and global influence.” Their downsizing or removal could reshape the continent’s security dynamics overnight.
Perhaps the most alarming vulnerability, however, lies in nuclear deterrence. Despite possessing nuclear arsenals, Britain and France combined still command only a fraction (roughly one-tenth) of what Russia holds. Europe’s nuclear security, in reality, rests on the backbone of the American arsenal. And while some U.S. warheads are stationed on European soil, they remain under Washington’s strategic control.
During the early phases of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin’s veiled nuclear threats sent shockwaves through diplomatic corridors. That existential fear may have faded somewhat, but the underlying imbalance remains sharp and dangerous.
In this emerging world order, Europe may have no choice but to recalibrate, rearm, and reckon with a future where the safety net it has long relied on is fraying fast.
A New Scientific Cold Front, As Trump Slashes Funds, Europe Steps Up
Also, as the Trump administration draws a hard line under America’s role as the world’s generous benefactor, its sweeping retreat is being felt far beyond the military sphere. The casualties of Trump’s “America First” doctrine now include global research partnerships, climate science funding, and fundamental academic freedoms, an erosion that Europe is swiftly responding to with both defiance and determination.
In a bold counter-move, the European Union has unveiled a €500 million ($567 million) initiative to make the continent “a magnet for researchers.” The move is far more than a budgetary allocation, it’s a strategic pivot. Standing shoulder to shoulder at the Sorbonne in Paris, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and French President Emmanuel Macron delivered what amounted to a scientific declaration of independence.
“Unfortunately, we see today that the role of science in today’s world is questioned,” von der Leyen said pointedly. “What a gigantic miscalculation.” Her remarks, while diplomatic in tone, left little doubt as to the object of her criticism. Macron was even more direct, lamenting the “mistake” of a once-innovative superpower now abandoning diversity-driven grants, misinformation studies, and even basic research related to vaccine science.
“No one could have imagined a few years ago that one of the largest democracies in the world would cancel research programs simply because the word ‘diversity’ was in the program,” Macron stated with visible disbelief. In a world increasingly shaped by misinformation and political tribalism, the idea of gutting such research is not only short-sighted but also dangerous.
The comments were a direct response to the National Science Foundation’s recent move to cancel hundreds of grants, as dictated by Trump’s executive order aimed at “restoring freedom of speech.” In effect, this means silencing studies that confront misinformation, equity, or public health—fields that had gained critical relevance in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and global disinformation campaigns.
Europe, sensing an opportunity and responsibility, is now seeking to fill the vacuum left by the US. By positioning itself as the new global beacon of scientific inquiry, the EU is aiming to not just salvaging the future of innovation but also reshaping the power dynamics of soft influence. With plans to legally enshrine “freedom of scientific research” and a renewed push to reach the long-held goal of investing 3% of GDP in R&D by 2030, Europe is now not only protecting knowledge but also weaponizing it as a geopolitical asset.
This scientific push is not occurring in isolation. It’s deeply intertwined with the new geopolitical order taking shape, where Europe is being forced to assume roles it long subcontracted to Washington – defender, innovator, and now, the global champion of academic freedom. As Macron put it, “This great democracy… would make such a mistake. But here we are.”
Under The Lens – Geopolitical Realignment
The most immediate fallout is geopolitical. For decades, the United States acted as Europe’s security guarantor, its diplomatic heavyweight, and its global interlocutor. But Trump’s retreat from NATO-style multilateralism, coupled with his transactional worldview, has left Europe dangerously exposed, particularly in the face of an increasingly assertive Russia and an emboldened China.
Europe’s response, while still fragmented, is rapidly evolving. Initiatives like the EU’s Strategic Compass and Macron’s push for “strategic autonomy” are no longer fringe ideas, they are becoming core to European defense policy. The continent is now being forced to answer questions it has long avoided –
What does a militarily self-reliant Europe look like? How does the EU project power in a world where Pax Americana is crumbling?
Washington’s focus on the South China Sea, and its veiled message that Europe must “handle its own backyard,” could lead to a new global power vacuum. Into that space, powers like China, Russia, and even regional players like Turkey may further insert themselves, recalibrating the balance of global influence.
Economic Disruption and Decoupling. From Allies to Competitors?
Economically, the breakdown in transatlantic cooperation carries significant costs. The Trump administration’s aggressive trade posture, marked by tariffs, subsidy disputes, and “Buy American” mandates, has inflamed tensions with European allies and undermined the rules-based order that both sides once championed.
For Europe, this could mean a pivot toward greater economic self-sufficiency. Already, the EU is accelerating its ambitions in key industries – semiconductors, green energy, and defense manufacturing. The European Chips Act, for instance, aims to reduce dependence on US and Asian supply chains by building a competitive microchip industry within the bloc. Likewise, the Green Deal Industrial Plan and new state aid rules aim to match US subsidies under the Inflation Reduction Act, which European leaders have criticized for its protectionist bent.
At the same time, these moves signal a potential economic decoupling between the two blocs – one that could reshape global trade. If Europe increasingly sees the US not as a partner but as a competitor in sectors like AI, clean tech, and pharmaceuticals, a new era of economic rivalry may emerge, further complicated by the competing gravitational pulls of China and other emerging markets.
Technological Independence and the Battle for Innovation Leadership
Technologically, the implications are perhaps the most profound. Trump’s rollback of US science funding, especially in areas like climate change, misinformation, and public health, has left the innovation pipeline weakened at a time when technological leadership is a key pillar of geopolitical dominance.
But the shift is not just about funding. It’s about values. While Trump’s America leans into culture wars and populist leanings that suppress certain lines of inquiry, Europe is staking its claim as the defender of open, evidence-based knowledge, one where diversity, equity, and truth-seeking are not dirty words, but democratic essentials.
If the US continues down its path of ideological insulation, and Europe sustains its commitment to open, well-funded innovation, we could witness a historic transfer of soft power – from Silicon Valley to European tech hubs; from Ivy League labs to European universities; from US-led scientific coalitions to EU-backed partnerships.
The Last Bit, A Continent Awakened
For Europe, the signs are clear – the era of reliance is over. Whether in defense, economic resilience, or scientific leadership, the continent must now forge a future on its own terms. And for the United States, the long-term risk of retreating from the global stage is not just a loss of influence, but a slow erosion of the very leadership it once commanded effortlessly.
In this new world order, alliances are no longer guaranteed, they must be earned. Innovation no longer automatically flows west, it migrates where it is nurtured. And power is no longer the domain of the loudest, it resides with the most prepared.
