In a dramatic and audacious escalation, Israel launched a widescale military offensive against Iran early Friday, targeting what it called “critical nuclear infrastructure, ballistic missile sites, and senior military leadership” – the opening salvo in what Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared would be a “prolonged operation to eliminate the existential Iranian threat.”

Dubbed Operation Rising Lion, the Israeli assault began with thunderous airstrikes on multiple Iranian cities, including Tehran and Natanz, the latter housing Iran’s most advanced uranium enrichment facility. The strikes came as a shock, not only to the Iranian regime but even to Israeli analysts and commentators- the result of what officials now admit was a carefully orchestrated deception campaign.

“We deliberately manipulated public discourse and misled commentators to lull Tehran into complacency,” an Israeli official stated, calling the move a “deception operation” to catch Iran off guard.

In a stunning breach of Iran’s top military command, the headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Tehran was hit, with reports confirming the death of IRGC Commander Gen. Hossein Salami. Iranian state media also claimed that children were killed in strikes that hit residential areas – raising fears that the conflict may rapidly spiral into a bloody regional war.

“We are at a decisive moment in Israel’s history,” Netanyahu said in a defiant video address, asserting that Iran had enough enriched material for 15 nuclear weapons and vowing to keep the operation going “for as many days as it takes.”

The Iranian leadership responded with fury. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declared that Israel had “unleashed its wicked and bloody hand” and warned of a “bitter fate” awaiting the attackers. Iran’s retaliation has already begun, with missile and drone strikes expected imminently.

Meanwhile, the United States moved swiftly to distance itself from the operation. Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a terse statement: “Israel took unilateral action against Iran. We are not involved in the strikes. Our priority is protecting American forces in the region.”

But Iran isn’t buying it. Tehran’s Foreign Ministry accused the US of complicity, claiming such strikes would have been impossible “without American coordination and authorization.”

As explosions rocked strategic sites across Iran, Israeli airspace was locked down, Ben Gurion Airport was shut, and tens of thousands of IDF soldiers were deployed along the borders. Defense Minister Israel Katz warned citizens to brace for incoming drone and missile fire:

“This is an existential moment. Iran will respond. We will respond harder.”

Reports also emerged of covert sabotage operations conducted inside Iran by Mossad, targeting missile sites and air defense systems – a move designed to weaken Tehran’s ability to counterstrike.

At least two prominent Iranian nuclear scientists, Fereydoun Abbasi and Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi, were confirmed killed in targeted strikes.

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar was said to be on a “marathon of calls” with world leaders, seeking diplomatic cover and international support as tensions threaten to spiral beyond containment.

“Operation Rising Lion” Unleashed: 200 Israeli Jets Pound Iran as Trump Watches From the Sidelines

The scale of Israel’s attack on Iran was unlike anything the Middle East has seen in recent years.

In a rare admission, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed that over 200 fighter jets were deployed in a sweeping aerial assault across Iran’s military and nuclear landscape. More than 100 high-value targets were struck, and over 330 munitions were dropped in what IDF spokesperson Effie Defrin described as a “precise and synchronized operation.”

At the center of the offensive: Iran’s nuclear ambitions, long a red line for Israel. The Israeli military cited fresh intelligence that Iran was “approaching the point of no return” in building a nuclear weapon – intelligence that remains unverified by U.S. agencies, but one that Netanyahu’s government insists required immediate action.

U.S.-Iran Talks Still On – For Now
Ironically, as bombs rained down on Iranian cities, U.S. and Iranian negotiators were preparing for yet another round of nuclear talks in Oman—the sixth attempt this year to restart diplomacy.

A senior U.S. official confirmed the meeting was still scheduled for Sunday despite the attack, calling it “essential to avoid catastrophic miscalculation.” But that may now be wishful thinking.

Israel’s strikes land at a time when tensions were already high over a recent IAEA resolution declaring Iran in breach of its nuclear non-proliferation obligations for the first time in nearly two decades. According to a May IAEA report, Iran now holds 408 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% purity – a step away from the 90% threshold needed for weapons-grade material. The watchdog estimates that’s enough for at least nine nuclear bombs.

Tehran maintains that its program is peaceful. “We are enriching uranium because we have the right to. We are not making weapons,” Iranian officials have repeated over the years. But few in Israel or among its Gulf allies are convinced.

The original 2015 nuclear deal had capped uranium enrichment at 3.67% with tight inspections. But after U.S. President Donald Trump pulled out of the deal in 2018, Iran tore up those limits – and the region has never been the same since.

Trump’s Dilemma – Diplomat or Bystander?
Hours before the first Israeli warplane even crossed into Iranian airspace, President Donald Trump had urged Israel not to strike, fearing it would destroy months of backchannel diplomacy.

“I don’t want them going in because, I mean, that would blow it,” Trump said bluntly on Thursday.

They went in anyway.

And now, Trump faces a geopolitical firestorm – one that could quickly turn into a military quagmire for American forces stationed across the region. Tens of thousands of U.S. troops are within range of Iranian missiles, from Iraq and Kuwait to Bahrain and Qatar.

As the operation kicked off, Trump appeared at a congressional picnic on the White House South Lawn, smiling for photos as F-35s launched toward Iranian targets. Later that evening, he was huddled with advisors in the West Wing – working to contain the fallout of an Israeli action that he had opposed but could not prevent.

A brief but notably cold statement from Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized the U.S. had no role in the strikes. “Tonight, Israel took unilateral action. We were not involved,” Rubio said. “President Trump’s priority remains protecting American personnel and interests in the Middle East.”

No warm words of solidarity. No promises of airlifted weapons. And no guarantees of American military support if Iran retaliates.

This leaves Israel, for now, largely on its own – facing a wounded Iran bracing to hit back. And Trump, caught in the crosshairs of a crisis that could define his presidency, is forced to balance Republican hawks cheering on Tel Aviv and his own desire to avoid another endless war in the Middle East.

Iran Blames U.S. for Israel’s Blitz, Threatens Retaliation With Full Arsenal
The war drums are no longer beating softly.

Within hours of Israel’s massive, coordinated assault across Iranian territory, Tehran squarely pointed the finger at Washington, accusing the United States of enabling, if not orchestrating, the attack.

“Such acts of aggression by the Zionist regime against Iran could not have occurred without coordination and authorization from the United States,” said Iran’s Foreign Ministry in a fiery statement Friday morning. “Accordingly, the U.S. government… is also responsible for the dangerous consequences of this reckless escalation.”

While Washington denies any involvement, Iran is making it clear: the price for Israeli aggression and by extension, American complicity will be paid.

“Iran will not hesitate to defend the nation,” the statement warned, as Tehran formally requested an urgent UN condemnation of Israel’s actions.

What Could Iran Do Next?
Iran’s military calculus is far from symbolic. If a retaliation is coming – and it appears all but certain –  the Islamic Republic has an arsenal that can inflict significant damage, even in the face of Israel’s formidable air defenses.

According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force has more than 100 medium-range ballistic missile launchers, capable of striking Israel from Iranian soil. These missiles have ranges exceeding 1,000 kilometers, and some carry warheads weighing over 1,200 kilograms – enough to flatten entire city blocks.

More significantly, solid-fueled missiles, unlike the more cumbersome liquid-fueled variants, can be launched within minutes, giving little time for interception or counteraction.

Tehran’s missile forces are complemented by its expanding drone and cruise missile fleet  – weapons that may not pack the punch of ballistic missiles, but can swarm Israeli defenses, overload radar systems, and strike from unconventional angles. These systems have proven difficult to fully intercept when launched in large numbers.

In October last year, Iran launched a volley of nearly 200 ballistic missiles and drones at Israel, though most were successfully intercepted with U.S. and allied support. That assault was seen as a dress rehearsal. This time, Iran is expected to come harder and with greater tactical complexity.

Iran’s Air Force, Loud But Limited
Though Iran maintains 265 combat-capable aircraft, the vast majority are aging U.S.-made fighter jets from the Shah-era, many of which would require midair refueling –  a capability Iran lacks in sufficient numbers. According to military experts, Iran has fewer than five refueling aircraft, which greatly limits the reach of any direct airstrike campaign.

As a result, any Iranian counterattack is likely to rely heavily on missile salvos, asymmetric drone warfare, and proxy attacks through its regional allies — particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shiite militias in Iraq, and Houthi rebels in Yemen.

The danger for the region now lies in escalation spiraling beyond Iran and Israel – into a multi-front war that could draw in the U.S., Gulf States, and non-state actors across the region.

“We are now in uncharted waters,” said a former U.S. CENTCOM commander. “Israel has fired the first shot in a campaign that may not be contained by geography or diplomacy.”

The Iranian leadership has convened its Supreme National Security Council and placed all air defense systems on maximum alert, state media reported. Multiple IRGC ballistic missile units have reportedly been repositioned, and Iranian social media is abuzz with signs of imminent retaliation.

Brigadier General Abolfazl Shekarchi, spokesperson for Iran’s Armed Forces, delivered a chilling message Friday: both Israel and the United States “will pay dearly” for what Tehran sees as a brazen act of war and a provocation backed, at least tacitly, by Washington.

Leadership Vacuum Could Complicate Iran’s Response
A significant and potentially destabilizing wrinkle in Iran’s retaliation calculus is the reported death of General Hossein Salami, commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), during the Israeli strikes –  a move seen by many analysts as a direct attempt to decapitate Iran’s military response capability.

If confirmed, Salami’s death would mark one of the highest-profile assassinations since the killing of Qasem Soleimani in 2020 and would escalate tensions to historic levels.

But it could also temporarily hamper Tehran’s ability to coordinate and execute large-scale retaliatory operations, especially those requiring synchronization across Iran’s vast missile, drone, and proxy networks.

Still, analysts remain cautious.

“Iran is absolutely capable of massive retaliation,” said Brett McGurk, a former top U.S. envoy for the Middle East. “Once they are set, they can launch in five-minute intervals, barrages of about 30 missiles each.”

The speed and scale of these attacks leave little room for defensive response. Ballistic missiles from Iran can reach Israel in 13 to 15 minutes, and their vulnerable window to interception is brief due to high-arching trajectories.

U.S. Pulls Out Personnel Amid Regional Uncertainty
Meanwhile, the Pentagon’s withdrawal of non-essential American personnel and families from several Middle Eastern locations earlier this week appears, in retrospect, to be a pre-emptive safety measure. A U.S. defense official acknowledged that CENTCOM was actively monitoring tensions, though no formal link was made to the Israeli operation at the time.

President Donald Trump, who reportedly had foreknowledge of the strikes but advised Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to hold back, now finds himself navigating a crisis with massive potential blowback – one he publicly stated he hoped to avoid.

Nuclear Facilities: Spared but Not Forgotten
Amid fears of a possible nuclear catastrophe, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported Friday that Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant was not targeted in the Israeli airstrikes. Furthermore, the IAEA said it had observed no spike in radiation levels at the Natanz enrichment facility, Iran’s largest and most sensitive nuclear site.

However, images and video emerging from Natanz suggest the site was partially hit, with massive smoke plumes and damage to surrounding infrastructure.

This has raised concern that while Israel may have avoided striking the core of the nuclear facility to avoid immediate fallout, it clearly intended to damage the centrifuge development and enrichment operations housed there, a move Tehran could interpret as an attempt to cripple its nuclear sovereignty.

What Could This Lead To? The Geopolitical Dominoes Set in Motion
The Israeli strikes on Iran, the most extensive in decades, and Iran’s vow for harsh retaliation may not just be an episode of regional brinkmanship. It could be the ignition point for a far-reaching geopolitical recalibration across the Middle East and beyond.

Here’s what this potentially sets into motion:

1. A Full-Scale Israel-Iran War with No Easy Exit
This is no longer just tit-for-tat shadow warfare through proxies or covert sabotage. With hundreds of Israeli fighter jets reportedly striking deep inside Iran and Iran promising direct retaliation, we may be entering a direct state-on-state conflict, a scenario long feared but never fully realized.

Unlike previous flashpoints, this could mean:

—-Missiles launched across borders regularly,

—-Civilian centers targeted

—-And even nuclear facilities becoming fair game.

Such a war wouldn’t stay contained within either country’s borders.

2. The U.S. as an Unwilling Participant – But Still a Target
Despite Washington’s insistence that it had no hand in the Israeli operation, Iran sees the U.S. as complicit, and that perception alone could shape Iran’s retaliation.

—-U.S. military bases in Iraq, Syria, Kuwait, and the UAE could face direct attacks.

—-American troops stationed in the Middle East, and even naval assets in the Persian Gulf, are now high-risk.

—-Iran’s proxies — Hezbollah, Houthis, and Shia militias in Iraq — could be activated to strike U.S. and Israeli targets in a multi-front escalation.

What starts as a regional flare-up could pull the U.S. into a new Middle East war, ironically against Trump’s stated foreign policy doctrine of avoiding such entanglements.

3. Collapse of Nuclear Diplomacy
The Oman talks on Iran’s nuclear program, already hanging by a thread, now face almost certain collapse. Any chance of reviving the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or pursuing new diplomatic frameworks may be dead in the water.

Iran’s leadership – under siege, possibly decapitated, and enraged –  is likely to escalate its nuclear enrichment as a form of deterrence. This could push Tehran closer to:

—-90% weapons-grade uranium enrichment,

—-Ejection of IAEA inspectors,

—-And perhaps even open nuclear breakout.

A nuclear Iran, or the perception of one, could trigger nuclear arms races in Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt — effectively unravelling decades of non-proliferation efforts.

4. Destabilization of the Arab World
While Gulf nations like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have quietly cooperated with Israel in recent years (especially against Iran), this new phase of open conflict places them in a dangerous position.

Iran could retaliate against them as U.S. allies or Israeli collaborators.

—-Houthi rebels in Yemen — Iran’s proxy — could step up missile attacks on Saudi infrastructure.

—-Fragile regional alliances like the Abraham Accords could unravel under the pressure of popular unrest across the Arab world that still sympathizes with Iran or Palestine.

In short, Sunni-Shia fault lines could fracture anew — but this time with more firepower and less diplomacy.

5. Global Economic Fallout: Oil, Markets & Supply Chains
The Persian Gulf is the artery of the global energy market. With war clouds gathering:

—-Oil prices could spike sharply, possibly crossing $150/barrel if tankers or infrastructure are attacked.

—-Global stock markets may tumble, especially in energy-sensitive sectors.

—-Supply routes like the Strait of Hormuz (through which 20% of the world’s oil flows) could be disrupted or militarized, leading to cascading effects across global trade.

—-Inflation, which had started to moderate globally, could resurge — and central banks, including the U.S. Fed, would face a painful policy dilemma.

6. A New Cold War Front: U.S.-Russia-China Triangle
This conflict could also open a new theatre in the broader geopolitical rivalry:

—-Russia could side with Iran, both for arms trade and anti-West posturing.

—-China, Iran’s largest oil buyer and a silent backer, might offer diplomatic or cyber support.

The U.S., already strained from Ukraine and Taiwan tensions, now faces a third military theatre — in the Middle East — which it has long tried to disengage from.

The Israel-Iran war may thus reshape global alliances, pushing nations to choose sides or risk being caught in the crossfire of a new multipolar order.

7. The Nuclear Question: From Strategic Threat to Doomsday Clock
If Israel’s attack was partly motivated by new intelligence about Iran’s imminent nuclear capabilities, and if Iran retaliates by accelerating its program, the world may be looking at the worst-case scenario:

A pre-emptive Israeli nuclear strike to destroy Iran’s capability permanently — or a nuclear response by Iran if it eventually achieves that capacity.

Either scenario moves the Doomsday Clock much closer to midnight, and non-proliferation regimes could crumble overnight.

The Last Bit
This is not just another Middle East skirmish. It is a potential pivot point in 21st-century geopolitics and what happens next could determine:

—Whether the U.S. stays a global hegemon or loses regional clout,

—-Whether the Middle East is stabilized through deterrence or descends into chaos,

—–And whether the nuclear taboo, respected since Hiroshima and Nagasaki, can hold in an age of rising desperation.

As the smoke rises from Natanz and global capitals brace for impact – this is not just about Iran and Israel anymore; it’s about a world entering a very dangerous phase indeed.