In a stunning U-turn that signals a possible cooling of the chip war, the U.S. government has rolled back export restrictions on semiconductor design software to China. On Thursday, Synopsys and Cadence – two of America’s EDA heavyweights, confirmed they’re dusting off access for their Chinese clients.

“Synopsys is working to restore access to the recently restricted products in China,” the California-based firm said, not bothering to hide the shift in gears.

Cadence followed suit, telling that the U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security (under the Commerce Department) had officially reversed course.

“We are in the process of restoring access to our software and technology to affected customers in compliance with U.S. export laws,” said a Cadence spokesperson, echoing the sense of déjà vu from pre-ban days.

Just weeks ago, on May 23, Washington had ordered chip software firms to obtain licenses before shipping anything remotely related to semiconductor design, including software and critical chemicals to China. Siemens EDA, a subsidiary of Germany’s Siemens and another key player, was also caught in the crossfire.

Now,  All systems go again!

Together, Synopsys, Cadence, and Siemens EDA dominate the global Electronic Design Automation (EDA) market, holding 31%, 30%, and 13% market share respectively, per TrendForce 2024 data. That’s over 70% of the world’s chip design brainpower and now, a sizable slice of it is back on Beijing’s radar.

This thaw follows China’s recent olive branch, a tentative trade truce and whispers of cooperation on rare earths and advanced tech – is this diplomacy, or did the U.S. just blink first in the silicon standoff?

Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” 

If there’s one thing Donald Trump knows how to do, it’s slap a superlative on legislation. And his latest offering, branded the “Big Beautiful Bill,” is anything but subtle, especially for the semiconductor sector. Wrapped in patriotism, protectionism, and pure business calculus, the bill aims to supercharge America’s chipmaking ambition while turning up the heat on companies that still rely too heavily on Asian supply chains.

Passed by the Senate this week, the bill proposes to increase investment tax credits for semiconductor manufacturers from 25% to 35%, a significant jump that’s already got Wall Street’s attention and silicon giants on high alert.

Companies like Intel, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), and Micron Technology are poised to cash in but only if they scale up their U.S. operations before 2026 – build here, build fast, or miss out.

From CHIPS Act to Trump Act – Same Goal, Very Different Approach 
This new move builds on the Biden-era 2022 CHIPS and Science Act, which offered $39 billion in grants and another $75 billion in loans to lure chip manufacturing back to U.S. soil. That act was Biden’s moonshot to de-risk the tech supply chain and respond to China’s growing semiconductor influence. But Trump is not satisfied with playing nice.

In Trump’s world, grants are for losers and tariffs are the real leverage. While the expanded credits in this bill may look like a continuation of CHIPS Act incentives, Trump has made it clear he’s no fan of his predecessor’s policies. Earlier this year, he called for a full repeal of the CHIPS Act, even as his allies in Congress remained cautious.

Trump’s position is simple – why give free money when you can force companies to comply through trade pain?

Parallel to the bill, the Trump administration has quietly launched an investigation into semiconductor imports, signaling that new tariffs may be on the horizon. The target are Asian chipmakers and overseas supply chains. The tactic, squeeze until they move production back home.

And it’s working—at least for now.

Firms like TSMC, Nvidia, Micron, and GlobalFoundries have all announced plans to expand their U.S. footprint, either by breaking ground on new fabs or doubling down on existing ones. The fear of tariffs is acting like a cattle prod, jolting semiconductor companies into fast-tracking American investments, even if the economics are messy.

As Daniel Newman, CEO of tech advisory firm Futurum Group, put it:

“Given the risk of tariffs, increasing manufacturing in the U.S. remains a key consideration for these large semiconductor companies.”

The new tax credits, he noted, are a financial cushion—designed to soften the blow of building expensive plants on American soil, where costs can be up to 50% higher than in Taiwan or South Korea.

Deadline Politics and the July 4th Showdown
But before anyone starts counting their tax breaks, the “Big Beautiful Bill” needs to survive the final boss level: the U.S. House of Representatives. While the House narrowly passed its own version of the bill last month, the two versions must now be reconciled. Trump has publicly pushed for the final vote to happen before July 4th – an obvious play to tie “American independence” to “semiconductor independence.”

If the bill makes it to the finish line, 35% tax credits would mark one of the biggest government-backed chip incentives in U.S. history. And unlike the CHIPS Act grants, which involve slow-moving applications and compliance hurdles, these credits could be fast-tracked to reward companies building real, physical infrastructure on American soil.

This is more than just a tax tweak, a signal that Trump’s trade and tech policy isn’t about coexistence with China but about dominance. While the administration has momentarily eased up on software export bans to China (likely part of a broader trade truce), its domestic policy is still hard-nosed and aggressive.

Trump wants to corner the semiconductor future, and he’s doing it by mixing financial lures with regulatory threats while rewriting the bipartisan semiconductor script to read more like a campaign manifesto.

Vietnam Catches a Trump Tariff Thunderbolt – 20% Hit, 40% If You’re Hiding for China

Just when Vietnam thought it had climbed the U.S. trade ladder, Trump dropped the hammer.

In a move that stunned Southeast Asian markets, President Donald Trump announced a 20% tariff on Vietnamese imports headed to the U.S. – part of what he’s calling a “fair and reciprocal” trade deal. The twist is he’s selling it as a win for both sides, claiming the deal will unlock tariff-free access for U.S. goods into Vietnam while punishing shady “transshippers.”

And what’s transshipping, you ask – it’s the not-so-secret game where Chinese goods get rerouted through Vietnam, re-labeled, and sent to America to dodge U.S. tariffs. Trump’s deal now slaps a 40% penalty on any product found guilty of this practice. In Trump’s words: “Vietnam will pay.”

Well, not quite. American importers will be footing the bill first and maybe U.S. consumers too, if history (and retail math) is any guide.

Sticker Shock Incoming? You Bet.

While the headline 20% tariff might seem manageable, it’s a big deal for Vietnam, a country where exports to the U.S. reportedly make up 30% of its entire GDP. Just months ago, Vietnamese goods were slammed with a brutal 46% blanket tariff, which was then lowered to 10% during a temporary 90-day truce that expires any day now. With this new 20% rate, Trump’s giving Vietnam a soft slap instead of the full punch – for now.

But make no mistake, prices are about to jump. An analysis using AlixPartners data found that under the original 46% tariff, a $50 men’s sweater could rise to nearly $68. At 20%, that sweater still costs $60+. And that’s just one item in a long list of tariff-affected goods that includes footwear, furniture, electronics, and more.

Fed Chair Powell Says It’s Coming And It’s Gonna Sting
Even Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell chimed in this week, warning that the inflationary impacts of Trump’s tariff spree are likely to show up hard this summer. Retailers are already reporting price upticks, especially in apparel and consumer goods, sectors heavily dependent on Vietnamese supply lines.

And while some analysts say the full impact hasn’t hit yet, thanks to pre-tariff stockpiles, those reserves won’t last long. Once they dry up, shelves will stay full, but tags will scream louder.

Markets Shrug, Hanoi Sweats
Interestingly, U.S. markets barely flinched. The S&P 500 ticked upward after the deal was announced, perhaps signaling that Wall Street sees this as a calculated hit, not a global shockwave. Vietnamese stocks, meanwhile, soared to their highest level in over three years, on hopes that the 20% tariff is better than a return to 46%. But Hanoi knows this is far from over.

But here is the problem, no one’s sure when the deal takes effect or if it’s even signed. The White House has been tight-lipped, and Trump’s announcement came via Truth Social, not a formal press conference. When pressed White House aides for details, they offered vague assurances but didn’t confirm Trump’s numbers.

The Last Bit, Ticking Clock on Trump’s Tariff Reset
This Vietnam deal comes just days before Trump’s 90-day tariff pause is set to expire. That temporary break brought down tariffs across dozens of countries to a uniform 10%, offering a brief window for trade negotiations. So far, only China and the UK have managed to hash out revised frameworks. Vietnam just barely avoided being the next casualty though it’s clearly not walking away unscathed.

For Trump, this is all part of the strategy. Throw out harsh tariffs, pull countries to the table, then cut “deals” that still leave America with the leverage. His defenders say it’s working – the U.S. government has collected billions in tariff revenue, and countries are lining up to strike new deals.

His critics on the other hand – they are screaming inflation, unpredictability, and economic pain for American families, arguing that Trump’s tariff boomerang hits the U.S. consumer first, and hardest.

So here is the bottom line – Vietnam just got caught in the middle of Trump’s tariff storm, again. China may be getting chip concessions, but Hanoi is paying the price. If Trump’s global trade reset is a poker game, he’s raising the stakes every round and Southeast Asia just got called out, hard.