Trump Visits The Power Trio, The Gulf’s Golden Gambit. How Trump’s Hosts Have Big Asks And Bigger Budgets

Three energy-rich Gulf Arab nations are racing to turn their influence over Donald Trump into tangible gains with the president set to visit next week.

They have built personal ties with the president and collectively pledged trillions in US investments while casting themselves as key intermediaries in conflicts Trump wants to resolve, from Gaza to Ukraine and Iran.

Now, they’re being rewarded with the privilege of hosting Trump’s first state visit of his second term. The US president is set to land in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, followed by visits to Qatar and then the United Arab Emirates that stretch until May 16.

Given Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy, the three states have much to offer.

“In Trump’s book, the Gulf states tick all the right boxes,” Hasan Alhasan, senior fellow for Middle East policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Bahrain. They “pledge to invest trillions in the US economy and spend colossal amounts on US weapons systems.”

Behind this carefully crafted strategy of wooing Trump is a desire from Gulf states to solidify and formalize their positions as the US’ indispensable security and economic partners, and extract as much benefit for themselves as they can.

US-Gulf relations have improved significantly since Trump returned to office. Frustrated at the perceived lack of US interest in their needs under the Biden administration, Saudi Arabia and the UAE had sought to diversify their military, technological and economic ties. With Trump in office, they see what one Gulf official called a “once-in-a-lifetime opportunity” to achieve his country’s objectives.

From their perspective, now is the time to cement ties with Washington, and even “secure greater privileges in their relationship with the world’s most powerful nation,” Ebtesam AlKetbi, founder and president of the Emirates Policy Center think tank in Abu Dhabi, said.

Each of the three nations Trump is visiting has its own list of priorities. Here’s what they want from the US and how they’re going about achieving it.

Sealing a U.S.-Saudi Security Pact

For Saudi Arabia and its Gulf neighbors, the top priority during Trump’s visit can be summed up in one word – security. “Security, security, and security,” emphasized Ali Shihabi, a Saudi commentator and author, reflecting the region’s deep desire for a renewed American security commitment.

Gulf leaders are eager to keep Trump focused on the region’s stability, fearing that without continued engagement, his famously shifting interests may move elsewhere. Talks of a landmark U.S.-Saudi defense and trade pact nearly crossed the finish line last year but hit a roadblock over Riyadh’s demand that Israel commit to a pathway toward Palestinian statehood – something Washington couldn’t guarantee.

Yet analysts like Firas Maksad of Eurasia Group believe Trump is likely to proceed with major agreements regardless of progress on normalization, which he bluntly calls “dead.”

At the heart of Riyadh’s ambitions is also a desire for U.S. backing on its civil nuclear program. But the Kingdom’s insistence on enriching uranium domestically has alarmed Washington and Tel Aviv, raising red flags over nuclear weapons proliferation.

If Trump greenlights the cooperation, however, it could open the door for lucrative U.S. corporate contracts. Framing its relationship with Washington as a mutual win, Riyadh has dangled massive investment incentives.

Trump claimed in March that he’d make the trip if Saudi Arabia committed $1 trillion in U.S. investments – “They’ve agreed to do that, so I’m going there,” he said. While Saudi officials have not confirmed that number, they did announce in January plans to increase U.S.-Saudi trade and investment by $600 billion over four years, with the possibility of even more.

Yet Riyadh’s grand economic diversification plans, anchored in its Vision 2030 blueprint require a reliable stream of oil revenue. And that’s where the friction with Trump may emerge. As Trump pushes for lower oil prices to support American consumers, Saudi Arabia needs higher oil revenues to fund its transformation away from oil dependence. With global oil prices slipping in part due to Trump’s tariffs and trade moves, Riyadh finds itself balancing between pleasing Washington and preserving its own economic ambitions.

UAE’s Quest for AI Dominance

Among Gulf nations, the United Arab Emirates stands out for placing massive investments at the heart of its strategy to strengthen ties with the United States. With its immense wealth and ambition, the UAE has pledged trillions in U.S. investments and proudly brands Abu Dhabi as “the capital of capital.”

“Expanding trade and investment is a way to reinforce this strategic partnership,” said Ebtesam AlKetbi, founder of the Emirates Policy Center. She emphasized that while the U.S. remains a crucial security partner for the Gulf, its dynamic economy also aligns perfectly with the UAE’s long-term development goals.

In March, the UAE unveiled an ambitious $1.4 trillion investment blueprint over the next decade, targeting artificial intelligence, semiconductors, manufacturing, and energy. Its current U.S. investments already total $1 trillion, according to its embassy in Washington.

Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, illustrated that this massive financial commitment reflects the UAE’s determination to be a global leader in advanced technology and reduce its dependence on oil. But realizing its AI ambitions won’t be easy particularly without access to critical U.S. microchips. During the final days of President Biden’s term, Washington imposed curbs on AI chip exports to prevent advanced technologies from reaching adversaries like China.

The UAE, caught in the dragnet, has been subject to these restrictions. However, in a major reversal announced Thursday, President Trump plans to roll back several of these Biden-era measures potentially paving the way for Abu Dhabi’s tech ambitions to flourish. For the UAE, Trump’s visit could mark a turning point in its quest to dominate the AI frontier.

Qatar’s Global Diplomacy

Qatar, often seen as the most diplomatically agile Gulf state, has long leveraged its deep military and political ties with the United States. Hosting the largest U.S. military base in the Middle East deemed “indispensable” by the U.S. State Department – Qatar serves as a cornerstone of American military operations in the region.

In a low-profile move last year, Washington extended its presence at the Al Udeid Air Base for another decade and amended its longstanding 1992 defense agreement to further cement the bilateral relationship. Its designation as a Major Non-NATO Ally in 2022 by the Biden administration only formalized what has long been an exceptionally close alliance.

But Qatar isn’t just a military ally – it’s also carved out a niche as a diplomatic power broker. From mediating in Gaza to facilitating Taliban negotiations in Afghanistan, Doha has made conflict resolution central to its foreign policy, using it as a strategic asset to remain indispensable to Washington.

“The Gulf states view conflict mediation as a source of influence and prestige,” said Hasan Alhasan of the International Institute for Strategic Studies. As Trump prepares to visit, Qatar is expected to raise the issue of Syria directly. A Qatari official stated that Doha will urge the Trump administration to lift U.S. sanctions on Syria under the Caesar Act – though Qatar remains hesitant to provide financial aid without clear support from Washington.

Ultimately, Trump’s Gulf tour is about the deals, what he can get, and what the Gulf states hope to secure in return. Each of the three nations – Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar – is positioning itself as a vital player in Trump’s transactional world order.

“He’s coming here because he believes it’s in the interest of the U.S. economy, and perhaps his own interests, to have those deals with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar,” said Firas Maksad. “So expect big announcements.”