Trump Declares ‘Total Reset’ With China In Geneva As Trade Tensions Hit Ports – Zero Ships Headed To California. But What Was Trump’s Negotiating Strategy With China?
Hoping for a win in Geneva, even as the trade cold war between the world’s two largest economies might just be thawing, if only slightly; after months of tense silence and retaliatory measures, the United States and China are once again sitting across the table. But make no mistake: this isn’t diplomacy as usual. This is Trump’s second term, and the playbook reads more like strategic theater than traditional statecraft.
Top-level economic talks resumed in Geneva this week, signaling a possible shift from the previous deadlock that had left both nations economically bruised and globally scrutinized.
Leading the US delegation is Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer (a key figure from Trump’s first term) by his side. Their arrival marks the most serious attempt yet to revive structured dialogue with China, separate from the flurry of bilateral trade talks the US is simultaneously conducting with other countries.
From Geneva, Top Secret
The location of the high-stakes trade talks in Switzerland was kept confidential, but observers spotted both U.S. and Chinese delegations returning to a gated United Nations ambassador’s villa in the leafy suburb of Cologny after a lunch break. The estate, which includes a private park with views of Lake Geneva, appeared to be the venue for the discussions.
Earlier in the day, U.S. officials including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer were seen leaving their hotel, smiling and dressed in red ties with American flag pins. Bessent declined to speak to the press. Meanwhile, Mercedes vans with tinted windows were seen departing a nearby lakeside hotel where the Chinese delegation was staying, as marathon runners trained in the spring sunshine.
The U.S. is pushing to reduce its $295 billion goods trade deficit with China and is urging Beijing to move away from what it describes as a mercantilist economic strategy. Washington wants China to increase domestic consumption – a shift that would require politically sensitive economic reforms.
China, however, has pushed back firmly. Beijing is demanding the U.S. reduce its tariffs, clarify its expectations for increased Chinese imports of American goods, and treat China as a peer on the global stage.
In a strongly worded editorial on Saturday, China’s state-run Xinhua News Agency criticized the United States’ “reckless abuse of tariffs,” saying it had destabilized the global economic order. Still, it acknowledged that the negotiations in Geneva were “a positive and necessary step to resolve disagreements and avert further escalation.”
“Whether the path ahead is negotiation or confrontation, one thing is clear: China’s determination to safeguard its development interests is unshakable, and its commitment to maintaining global economic and trade stability remains firm,” the commentary said.
Going Low On Fuel And Expectations!
Despite the high-level engagement, expectations of a breakthrough remain low. Analysts note that both sides are keen to avoid appearing weak, and deep distrust continues to shape the tone of the negotiations.
On Friday, President Donald Trump floated the idea of an 80% tariff on Chinese imports, his first specific suggestion since implementing sweeping 145% levies. He also claimed the talks were initiated by China, while Beijing insists the U.S. requested the dialogue.
China may be seeking a 90-day waiver on tariffs similar to what the U.S. has offered to other trading partners during negotiations. Any move toward tariff reduction or follow-up dialogue would be viewed positively by global investors.
Swiss Economy Minister Guy Parmelin, who met with both delegations on Friday, called the very fact that talks were taking place “a success.” He added that if a road map could emerge and discussions continue, tensions would ease. Talks may extend into Sunday or Monday, he said.
Switzerland played a key behind-the-scenes role in arranging the meeting, following diplomatic outreach by Swiss officials to both Washington and Beijing. Vice Premier He Lifeng is leading the Chinese delegation, according to Chinese state broadcaster CCTV. He is also expected to meet World Trade Organization Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala during his visit, the Geneva-based agency confirmed.
Okonjo-Iweala welcomed the dialogue, calling it “a positive and constructive step toward de-escalation,” and emphasized the need for sustained communication between the world’s two largest economies.
Trump’s ‘Great Progress Made’
Trump took to Truth Social on Saturday to declare that the Geneva talks had been productive.
“A very good meeting today with China, in Switzerland. Many things discussed, much agreed to. A total reset negotiated in a friendly, but constructive, manner,” he posted. “We want to see, for the good of both China and the U.S., an opening up of China to American business. GREAT PROGRESS MADE!!!”
It marked Trump’s first public remarks following the initial round of talks in Geneva. A source briefed on the meetings confirmed that negotiations would resume on Sunday.
Xinhua echoed this sentiment, noting that while the Switzerland talks were a meaningful step, “an ultimate solution requires strategic patience, determination, and just support from the international community.”
Trade War And Economy
Since returning to office in January, Trump has reinstated and escalated tariffs on Chinese imports – raising most to 145%. He cited continued unfair trade practices and China’s failure to curb the export of precursor chemicals used in manufacturing fentanyl, a deadly synthetic opioid.
In response, Beijing has slapped 125% tariffs on most American goods, vowing not to yield to what it calls “imperialist” pressure and economic bullying. The tit-for-tat tariffs have severely impacted trade flows.
Economists estimate that halving the tariffs might still fall short of restoring trade to previous levels. Analysts at Goldman Sachs said Thursday that U.S. inflation could surge to 4% by year’s end due to the higher import costs caused by the trade war.
Imports from China, in particular, are already plummeting. The National Retail Federation predicts a 20% year-on-year drop in U.S. imports in the second half of 2025. JPMorgan forecasts an even steeper decline in Chinese imports, between 75% and 80%.
Many of these imports, ranging from clothes and toys to electronics and industrial components are deeply embedded in daily American life. With goods already en route under the elevated tariffs, any trade deal now would take time to ease inflationary pressures.
The ongoing trade war is already weighing heavily on both the US and Chinese economies.
The United States has witnessed its first quarterly economic contraction since early 2022, largely due to a rush by importers to bring in goods before the latest round of steep tariffs took effect. This decline in gross domestic product, the most comprehensive measure of the nation’s economic health, shows the disruptive consequences of the tariff battle.
China, too, is reeling under the pressure. In April, Chinese exports to the United States plunged to $33 billion, a sharp 21% drop from $41.8 billion a year earlier, according to calculations. The impact is acutely visible in China’s manufacturing sector, where factory activity shrank at its fastest pace in 16 months, prompting Beijing to accelerate its plans for economic stimulus.
Adding more to the trade talks is President Donald Trump indication he will raise the issue of jailed Hong Kong media mogul Jimmy Lai during negotiations. Lai, known for his outspoken criticism of Beijing through his now-defunct Apple Daily, is currently facing a high-stakes national security trial that could result in life imprisonment.
No Chinese Ships
Meanwhile, the effects of the trade war are increasingly visible at America’s ports. For the first time since the pandemic, no cargo ships have departed from China to the West Coast’s busiest ports in a 12-hour window, a startling drop from the 41 vessels that had been scheduled just six days earlier.
Mario Cordero, CEO of the Port of Long Beach, called the situation “cause for alarm.” Port traffic has plunged, with Long Beach reporting a 35–40% decline in cargo volume, and Los Angeles down 31%. Even the Port of Seattle had zero container ships docked, a rare occurrence reminiscent of pandemic-era disruptions.
The sharp decrease is directly linked to the sweeping tariffs imposed by the US last month, which have rendered trade with China prohibitively expensive for many businesses.
Port officials warn that consumers will soon feel the brunt of these disruptions. “If things don’t change quickly,” said Cordero, “we may see empty shelves. This will start impacting consumers within the next 30 days.”
China remains the largest source of imports at the Port of Long Beach, accounting for 63% of total cargo, though that figure has declined from 72% in 2016 as companies diversify sourcing strategies. Nonetheless, the dependency remains substantial.
Global shipping giant Maersk has also sounded the alarm, reporting a 30–40% drop in cargo volume between China and the US. Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc warned that unless tensions ease soon, the economic damage could deepen and become more permanent.
Trump’s Trade Strategy with China
Just hours after President Donald Trump’s trade team boarded a plane for high-stakes economic talks in Geneva, he took to social media and tossed an unexpected twist into the negotiations – by suggesting he might slash tariffs on China from 145% to 80%.
Trump appeared to be negotiating with himself before talks had even begun. While this public post may have blindsided Chinese officials, it wasn’t news to his top negotiators. Internally, they had already been weighing the possibility of lowering tariffs ahead of the U.S.-China discussions.
Trump’s social media post also included a nod to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, claiming Bessent would make the final call. In truth, it was a deliberate move to boost Bessent’s standing in the eyes of the Chinese. But officials on both sides understand that any real agreement will ultimately come down to Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
White House insiders have drawn a clear distinction between the China negotiations and the broader, more aggressive push to secure trade deals with other nations. That global effort was set in motion by Trump’s decision to pause the April 2nd reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, a move some advisors see as a pressure tactic aimed at Beijing, especially through faster deals with key Indo-Pacific players like Japan and South Korea.
The administration’s strategy for China is unfolding on its own track – less about sweeping announcements, more about steady de-escalation.
Step one: mutual cooling of tensions. Step two: demand tangible Chinese actions on core U.S. concerns, like curbing fentanyl exports and reviving parts of the “Phase One” trade deal from Trump’s first term.
These early steps are meant to lay the groundwork for deeper, more comprehensive talks on the overall economic relationship.
“This is about testing whether we can get to a stable foundation. If we do, maybe that leads to something broader,” Greer states on Thursday.
U.S. frustration over China’s export controls on rare earth elements could also spark short-term deals, though a full-fledged agreement remains a long shot, unless, of course, Trump decides to force one through.
