India showing positive numbers and slowly flattening the curve for Covid-19

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India has flattened the Covid-19 curve to a perfect extent with the early lockdown measures and also ‘green Shoots’ have emerged following the restrictions were lifted in a staggered manner. 

“These green limbs have a conducive policy environment to develop farther and nudge the economy early on the way of economic recovery and Expansion,” the ministry said on the growing concern over the coronavirus pandemic in India.

The recovered number of cases has surpassed the active numbers over the past few days. Experts are saying that the numbers will surely rise in the coming months due to the increase in testing per population but one thing that we can all be sure of is, the recovered patients will outgrow the active patients. This is because Covid-19 has a low morbidity rate and around 80% of the people can be asymptomatic. The asymptomatic cases can be a serious issue since healthcare officials might find it hard to trace and test them accordingly since no signs or symptoms are shown.

However, the absolute rising number of cases can lead to two main crises in India. 1. Growing concern about the health infrastructure present in India. 2. The economy has a disproportionate authority from the government whether they will impose a strict or a partial lockdown.

Present data indicates a steady gain in the amount of Covid-19 instances, with India, placed third internationally concerning the daily additions to the active cases.  The growth rate remained steady with a ten-day compounded daily growth rate (CDGR) in 3.7 percent versus 4 percent on June 13.  The CDGR of instances has fallen to 2.1 percent with growth in the number of cases that are recovered.

Did the India lockdown work?

Experts have split decisions on this topic as most of them are saying that the lockdown was a complete success and on the other hand, some are saying that it was a total failure. We all guess that we can understand the nature of the lockdown with the help of the rising number in the account. The rising numbers are a perfect indication of how the lockdown was maintained, how it was imposed, and look upon.

The growing number of cases is increasing just because Indian has amped the testing limit in the last few months. Every zone and area are divided into buffer and containment zones where the testing is conducted rapidly. The containment zones are being asked to keep a complete lockdown of 30 days before the case rate drops.

The recovery rate is growing in time

The past week saw a further increase in the cases-to-tests ratio, with the ratio rising to 6.2 percent versus 5.8 percent a week back.  The ratio daily has remained stable at high levels, although it’s important to note that there’s been a steady growth in testing over the past week.  

The healing rate bumped up farther with regained cases/confirmed instances at 55 percent as of June 20, 2020, versus 51 percent of June 13, 2020.  Most states have seen an increase in cases over the previous two weeks; only six countries have seen a decrease over this period.   

However, we should notice that 5.4 percent of active instances have never been delegated as yet, which might distort the information for a few countries. Fatality rates rose as Maharashtra and Delhi reclassified deaths that were previous to Covid-19.  India has fatality rates in comparison with nations that are influenced that are dense.

An investigation of data demonstrates the majority of the cases continue to be concentrated in metropolitan regions with districts leading 58 percent cases, leading 49 percent of cases, leading 10 districts and 25 districts leading 67 percent of instances.  

Now the doubling rate has increased only because the lockdown was impacted at the right time. If the lockdown was not imposed, the doubling rate would have been in 7 days and the number of active cases by the end of June would have been 3000% higher to what it is now.

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