What does the mathematical module conducted by London university tell about India’s lockdown?
The whole world is facing a pandemic which worsens the life of many people. The worldwide lockdown has brought a lot of changes. India is facing a lot of crises after the lockdown started. The lockdown has failed to decrease the pandemic and even raised it.
India will soon become free of the pandemic, according to Singapore researchers. They have made a research of when the world will be free of a pandemic. The Indian government has published several models. The closing of schools, colleges and other working areas have controlled the pandemic spread.
- Effects of lockdown in India, what epidemiological models said.
- Due to lockdown, the number of deaths is avoided according to the models. Is it the real situation?
- No impact of lockdown on mortality.
- Did lockdown avert deaths or increased pandemic?
- The study didn’t specify much about the deaths and lockdown. What is the meaning of the study?
Many models said the lockdown one lakh to two lakh lives. However, the government has yet not disclosed all the details of the mortality rate. The models have estimated and gave details accordingly. The models said the lockdown saved the lives of many.
Effects of lockdown in India, saying of the epidemiological model
The epidemiological has many kinds which are known as compartmental models. These models distribute the population into four parts. They are:-
- A community of people who are suspected.
- Next community of people who have few Covid-19 symptoms.
- Next group of people who came in contact but are not yet positive.
- And the last group of people who are positive and hospitalised.
People died due to the pandemic area of another group. The death rate can be estimated from the number of positive cases. There are various parameters also to estimate the mortal rate.
The models also describe how people changed groups from time to time. The models said the lockdown imposed in India cannot end COVID – 19. The type of lockdown will only postpone death. Yet, death cannot be prevented. The mortal rate will be much more.
If a country imposed lockdown at the very first the rate decreased from other groups. More people will be in the suspect group. Before the lockdown started the positive cases were very low.
During the lockdown phase, the people of groups should be the same as when it started. The lockdown phase must have more number of people in the suspected group. The mortality group and others should decrease.
Due to lockdown, the number of deaths is avoided according to the models. Is it the real situation?
None of the community whose survey was researched has full details. None of the models has exact details of how they calculated the rates. The methodology of the analysis can be assumed by several tables and graphs.
The model also took the rate of deaths in India. The rate of growth during the starting phase is also recognised. The recognition is done by assuming exponential development. The exponential growth is distinguished from the mortal rates based on a single day.
The function of exponent when used for a long time, can have separate results. Due to previous data being disturbed, users can add several exponents. These things allow one data to get up to 7000 and other up to 250,000 for the same amount.
The rate of growth may vary from these numbers. The rate of growth varies from exponential growth. It is due to the self precautions taken up by all humans. Wearing of masks, social distancing, use of sanitizer, etc., helped to control the situation. All credit doesn’t go to the Indian lockdown.
No impact of lockdown on mortality
- Lockdown has different outcomes in different situations. These situations are not always included in the models surveyed.
- Let us take an example of China. The country has a great impact on the infection level. The level came into control after a few lockdowns.
- China is still keeping the situation in control through the test and other measures taken. Even several other countries have the same impact after lockdown.
- The same impact of lockdown didn’t work in India. Lockdown has helped several countries to boost up their testing rate.
- The place for quarantine will also increase. But, the studies cannot survey the progress of India in the situation.
- The lockdown has harmed India. There is almost no access to health care nearby. Due to various reasons, it is also difficult to maintain social distance. Due to the economic crisis, all works are resumed with safety measures.
Did lockdown avert deaths or increased the pandemic?
People cannot measure the quantity of the result. Only the quality of data can be surveyed. The crisis of health care facilities is worsening. People cannot find doctors for another type of health problem. Due to the economic problem, people are not able to shut their works.
Physical distancing is also not possible in many places. These changes are more significant than changes happening during the lockdown.
The shutdown has deteriorated the condition of people. Most of the people in India are below the poverty line. These make it difficult to implement a full lockdown. The result will even be worse at its final phase.
The study didn’t specify much about the deaths and lockdown. What is the meaning of the study?
Due to several reasons, people cannot find out the actual result. Lockdown has brought a drastic change and is saving a thousand lives, according to the government. But the actual situation is not studied properly.
Government has not revealed everything about the humanitarian crisis and other problems. Thus, the studies are giving a little idea of the impact of lockdown on humans.
People are facing the pandemic along with lots of crises and other problems. India is a country with 35% (approx) of the population under the poverty line. Crisis of doctors during the lockdown phase has increased the mortality rate.
Indian lockdown has not got success until now. People are striving to get food and other necessary commodities. The country after the lockdown phase has faced an even higher rate of positive cases. It is a fail of the government to stop the transmission and get control over it.