Within the gleaming Meta headquarters in Menlo Park, California, Mark Zuckerberg has been grappling with a harsh truth. The platform that has made him a billionaire and changed how we are around one another is losing its cultural relevance. “Facebook’s cultural relevance is declining very quickly,” Zuckerberg wrote to Facebook chief Tom Alison in an April 2022 email that was released during recent antitrust hearings against Meta. It wasn’t a fleeting concern—Zuckerberg’s email had real significance: even if Instagram and WhatsApp continue to expand, Meta can’t really thrive if Facebook doesn’t.

This pivot reminds one of the fascinating question frequently debated in Silicon Valley:

Is Facebook, aka our FB heading down the path of powerful platforms now only found in the annals of history of the digital age, or will it evolve to reclaim its social media pole position?

Facebook‘s current predicament has occurred before in the past. Most online places that appeared solid have collapsed. Remember Friendster? It began in 2002, perfected the concept of social networking, and reached millions of users before technology issues and shifts in what users desired led to its downfall. MySpace suffered the same fate; after being acquired for $580 million in 2005 and reaching 100 million users in 2006, it was bested by Facebook’s more streamlined design and more user-friendly experience.

Even Google’s ambitious social networking experiment in Google+ did not work out, even with the company having more than enough money. Launched in 2011 as a so-called “Facebook killer,” Google+ was discontinued in 2019, just another Google failure. As goes the old saying, “The higher they climb, the harder they fall”—a saying that troubles every technology leader who remembers these cautionary stories.

More recently, platforms like Vine and Yik Yak were popular for a short time before almost vanishing. Vine, which was the first to use short videos now ubiquitous on social media, could not monetize successfully and was closed down by Twitter in 2016, ironically allowing TikTok to become a hit very rapidly with the same idea executed better.

FB now has the same fundamental questions that haunted its former competitors: How does a platform change when its underlying value doesn’t resonate with the next generation of users?

“Facebook Is For Old People!” — Is It A Demographic Challenge?

Most teens are saying Facebook something no youth site wants to hear when they’re discussing Facebook: “Old-fashioned.” “Dinosaur.” “It’s for old people!” This perception highlights Facebook’s greatest challenge, remaining relevant to everyone.

Studies indicate younger generations are abandoning Facebook for other platforms that feature ephemeral photos and videos. Although older millennials flocked to Facebook, Gen Z prefers Instagram, Snapchat, and most of all, TikTok. The numbers don’t deceive: in a poll, a mere 27% of teenagers reported using Facebook, compared with 95% using YouTube, 67% using TikTok, and 62% using Instagram (which is owned by Meta).

This demographic shift is akin to what occurred to popular sites such as AOL and Yahoo during the early 2000s. AOL’s “You’ve Got Mail” chime was very popular once, but the company failed to adapt to the times and became obsolete. Similarly, Yahoo was a pioneer in internet search and content until Google’s superior technology and simpler design made it less relevant.

Facebook is having a massive problem because social networks function best when many users employ them. When younger consumers view Facebook as “where your parents hang out,” it results in even more young consumers leaving. As Zuckerberg described in his emails, many consumers view their friend lists as “stale and not filled with the people they want to hear from or connect with.”

Is Facebook’s Fortress The Power of Niche Communities?

In spite of these problems, Facebook has positives that set it apart from other failed social networks. The most important of these is Facebook Groups, a robust network that continues to grow as important spaces for specific communities and interests.

Facebook Groups connect individuals in a local community and all over the world who have certain hobbies, health conditions, or professions. A rural Scottish cancer survivor can receive support from fellow patients anywhere. A woodworking enthusiast can exchange tips with others from all over the world. A parent seeking information on schools in the area can receive useful information from locals.

This focus on community makes Facebook resilient. Even though careless scrolling has dropped off, meaningful interaction is robust. Internet businessman Andrew Chen might observe, “The best tech companies don’t die in their sleep—they get murdered by poor adaptation to changing markets.” Facebook’s shift towards significant communities represents a savvy adaptation.

Reddit survived and succeeded because it was community-based, while Digg slowly disappeared. Likewise, LinkedIn did not suffer like other initial professional networks because it kept building its community and professional growth features instead of chasing more general social networking phenomena.

The Marketplace Dilemma Signalling An Opportunity Within Controversy

Facebook Marketplace is a place of opportunity and challenges. The platform has become relevant for individuals purchasing and selling to one another, with millions of products listed daily in the UK and globally. The buying and selling feature provides users with sound reasons to continue using Facebook, not only for social purposes.

But with this good news, there are worries about safety too. There are instances where Facebook Marketplace scams have cost users gigantic is proof that concerns about safety and trust are increasing. Though Craigslist had a similar problem earlier, Facebook’s issue is greater because users expect more accountability from the platform.

The site has had mechanisms in place to filter users and protect buyers, yet there are scams. This mirrors problems that plagued eBay early in its life until it developed sophisticated trust and security features. Facebook’s success in managing these marketplace trust problems may determine whether the feature benefits them or hurts them.

Perhaps no space is further from Facebook’s humble beginnings than the regulatory environment it finds itself in today. Once celebrated as a pioneering startup changing the world, Facebook today is confronted with unparalleled levels of regulatory and legislative scrutiny worldwide.

Recent court cases illustrate this new reality. A UK man was penalized for a Facebook fight after posting obscene material, showing that virtual battles can translate into real legal trouble. More broadly, Meta is under significant pressure with regard to content moderation, disinformation, antitrust, and data privacy.

This regulatory pressure is not only for Facebook. All the large tech firms are seeing more scrutiny. But the firm that once moved fast and broke things now operates in an environment where breaking things can result in enormous fines and serious threats to its business model.

There are historical precedents in how Microsoft solved serious legal issues in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Microsoft’s business model shifted after decades of court battles and it reformed its reputation. The issue is whether or not Facebook can resolve its legal issues as it matures for a new generation.

But Wait, This Is Not End; We have Zuckerberg’s Risky Bet In Line?

Zuckerberg has not sat idly by in the face of these difficult issues. His emails show a leader willing to consider drastic measures, such as the “crazy idea” of wiping out all of your friend lists so you have to begin anew. This extreme measure is not going to occur, but it shows how much disruption Zuckerberg thinks could potentially be required.

Facebook is making big changes in how it functions. The platform started using short videos with Reels, changed its algorithm to show users suggested content rather than friends’ posts (like TikTok), and is heavily investing in virtual reality and the idea of the “metaverse.”

These shifts remind us how Netflix transformed from a DVD-by-mail provider to a pioneer in streaming and then to a large player in content creation. Each shift was risky, yet Netflix’s decision to hurt its own successful models enabled it to thrive while Blockbuster vanished from memory.

Facebook is shifting its attention to the metaverse. With billions of dollars spent on virtual and augmented reality technology, Zuckerberg wants Meta to be seen as the maker of the next computing sensation, rather than a social networking company.

What Is The Road Ahead: Evolution or Extinction?

As Facebook turns 21, it stands at a crossroads that has confronted more mature tech platforms.

Will Facebook become the Orkut, Yahoo, and MySpace of yesteryears, or will it reinvent itself, like Microsoft, Apple, and Netflix have?

The answer probably depends on several factors.

1. First, is Facebook able to recapture young users or accept that it is mainly serving older people?
2. Second, is it able to preserve its strong community and marketplace while fixing trust and safety problems?
3. Third, is it able to traverse regulation without compromising its business?
4. And finally, will its big investments in the metaverse and AI pan out or draw resources away from its core business?

History indicates that technology platforms don’t vanish overnight. Instead, they will slowly dwindle and become obsolete or get acquired. Even Orkut, taking as an example, didn’t just vanish; it faded slowly to Facebook before Google closed it in 2014. What sets Facebook apart from so many other failed attempts in the past is its size, capital, and diversified approach. With billions of users, ample money, and ownership of Instagram and WhatsApp, Meta has numerous ways to remain relevant even when the flagship Facebook platform goes out of fashion.

The English poet John Donne used to say, “No man is an island”—and perhaps no social platform is one either. Facebook’s fate will not just be determined by what it does but by broader technology, social trends, and regulations. The platform that connected billions might never be as trendy as it once was, but it is also not likely to disappear entirely.

Rather, perhaps we are witnessing FB evolve into something new, perhaps less trendy in culture but still significant for how people interact, shop, and build communities online. In Silicon Valley, change is the only constant, they say. For Facebook, adopting this change rather than resisting it may be the difference between being an online giant and merely a tale in internet history books.