The question about the ending of the pandemic is on everyone’s mind right now. This question is a debate for scientists and the health minister. According to a paper that was published in a predatory journal, coronavirus will end by mid- September.
A mathematically based analysis also claims the same. The experts who have used the mathematical model-based analysis claim that the virus will die down slowly. They also say that when the number of infected becomes equal to those removed from circulation by recovery and death, the coefficient will reach the hundred percent threshold and the epidemic will be gone. This analysis has been done by Dr Anil Kumar who is the deputy director-general in the DGHS. It is also done by Rupali Roy who is the deputy assistant director in the same health Ministry.
They have used the mathematical model of Baileys. This basic model takes into consideration the total number of people who are infected and the total number of people who have been cured or who have died. According to this model, the pandemic started in India in March. Secondary data has been collected for the same. Some assumptions have been made for a certain period of time for this model.
It is essential to know that this is a mathematical model and these models are not absolute and it depends upon the quality of data available. It is solely dependent upon research and collection of data. Dr. Kumar has said that it is very important to report correct data for more accurate results. The amount of data fudging which is going on in India might lead to failure in this model. He also says that the lockdown must have been extended and not removed because this is the time when India needs the lockdown. It is important to know that this is a mathematical model and these models are not absolute and it depends upon the quality of data available. It is solely dependent upon research and collection of data.
Moreover, various states have been misreporting the coronavirus cases like Kerala, Karnataka and Delhi. The central government has questioned the state government time and again regarding the matter. All these models that have been developed are solely dependent upon the numbers which are given out by the government. If these models are not accurate, it literally means that the government is not giving out correct numbers. It is also said that the city of Delhi could record around one lakh COVID cases by the end of this month according to Dr. Verma.
He is the head of the five-member committee appointed by the Delhi government. And now the suspects are that the chief minister of Delhi is also infected with the virus. According to various researches, the trend is that the cases are getting doubled in 14 days. There are four epicenters is in India. The Delhi government has made an assumption that they would require 15,000 beds by the end of June. About 20 to 25% patients will require hospitalization and 5% cases would need ICU.
Dr Verma has also said that the recovery rate in Delhi has come down by almost 10% in the last two weeks. The recovery rate was earlier at 48.7% and now it is at 38%.
He has also said that if the number of cases slows down, the recovery rate will start rising again by next week. The entire country isn’t recovering but the lockdown has been opened up. The only question we have is, why? And the people more important than the economy? Who will earn money when no humans are left? Who will spend money and give away taxes to the government when there are corpses lying instead of the people?