Canada is preparing to host one of the most consequential G7 summits in recent years – as geopolitical tensions escalate in the Middle East and President Donald Trump returns to the global arena with a renewed mandate; the picturesque resort of Kananaskis in Alberta’s Rocky Mountains will serve as the backdrop for high-level deliberations starting Sunday and running through late Tuesday.

The Group of Seven – comprising Canada, the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, and Japan – has historically served as a forum for alignment among Western powers. But this year’s summit unfolds in an atmosphere of uncertainty, where the usual pursuit of consensus is overshadowed by strategic recalibrations and the unpredictability of the U.S. president.

While official discussions will cover issues ranging from wildfires and economic resilience to the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, a significant undercurrent runs through the gathering –  the challenge of managing interactions with Trump and containing diplomatic friction.

The bets are particularly high given past precedent. The 2018 G7, also held in Canada, ended in dramatic fashion when Trump departed early and lambasted then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as “very dishonest and weak,” instructing the U.S. delegation to disavow the final communique. That summit also produced a now-iconic image of then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel confronting Trump – a visual encapsulation of the unease many leaders felt.

An Expanded G7 Roster, With New Power Players at the Table

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney – who holds the G7 presidency – has broadened the summit’s scope by inviting a slate of non-member nations, including India, Brazil, South Africa, Mexico, Australia, South Korea, and Ukraine, alongside NATO’s secretary general. This expanded participation reflects Canada’s broader agenda: reinforcing global peace and security, accelerating the development of critical mineral supply chains, and stimulating job creation through strategic cooperation.

However, parallel tensions are in the air. Carney has openly warned of retaliatory measures if the U.S. fails to lift its contentious tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum. Trump, meanwhile, arrives with a history of provocative statements –  including previous musings about annexing Canada  –  and a trade agenda that continues to challenge multilateral norms.

A Summit Defined by Strategic Bargaining

World leaders, including Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, will also likely use the summit as an opportunity for bilateral engagements. Ishiba is expected to press Trump on removing tariffs that have battered Japan’s auto exports, following several inconclusive rounds of negotiations in Washington.

According to U.S. officials, discussions will extend across a wide array of topics: trade imbalances, global economic stability, artificial intelligence, international security, energy resilience, migration, narcotics trafficking, and wildfire response.

G7 Under Pressure – Trump, Ukraine, and a Fractured Global Frontline

As global flashpoints converge – from Eastern Europe to the Middle East – the G7 summit in Canada unfolds at a moment when unity among Western democracies is more fragile than ever. While the meeting offers a platform for coordination, many see it as a litmus test for how far the United States, under President Trump’s second term, is willing to align with allies.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s recent trip to Washington ended in visible strain, a reminder to world leaders of the tough balancing act in dealing with Trump even as hopes for a robust public endorsement of Ukraine’s war effort are waning. According to officials involved in summit planning, Kyiv would now count even a cordial engagement with Trump as a diplomatic win.

Despite Canada’s consistent support for Ukraine and Prime Minister Mark Carney’s intent to keep security on the agenda, Trump’s claim that he could end the Russia-Ukraine conflict within 24 hours continues to overshadow substantive talks. With negotiations stalled and sanctions enforcement weakening, European officials view this summit – and the upcoming NATO gathering in The Hague –  as critical venues to push for renewed pressure on Moscow.

A coordinated sanctions framework, backed by U.S. lawmakers and European allies, is in the works, but its success hinges on Trump’s buy-in.

Israel-Iran Conflict

Likewise, the meeting, taking place amid rising instability in the Middle East, is less a unified forum and more a crisis-management exercise. The Israel-Iran conflict is high on the agenda, but any unified path forward appears unlikely. Hence, while the summit opens with rhetorical calls for de-escalation, divergent strategies and national interests will likely undercut any joint resolution.

Unlike past G7 summits built on cohesion, this one is defined by strategic dissonance and by Trump’s disruptive presence. For many leaders, it’s not about shaping policy outcomes but avoiding public friction.

All Eyes on Trump And Business

As G7 leaders gather in Alberta against a backdrop of wildfire smoke and geopolitical turbulence, the summit’s agenda feels increasingly precarious. Monday will spotlight the global economy, but the shadow of U.S. trade threats and Washington’s evolving posture on international engagement ensures that even routine discussions feel politically fraught.

While broader conversations on security, AI, energy, and climate are slated, the main axis of discussion remains the Ukraine conflict, intensifying Middle East tensions, and a world economy rattled by tariffs and the trade timebomb.

The U.S. is pushing its trading partners to accept what it calls “fair and reciprocal” relationships – a euphemism for sweeping tariff hikes and bilateral resets. President Trump’s hard deadline of July 9 for new trade deals is fast approaching and with absent agreements, countries face punitive tariffs – some potentially as high as 50%.

Already, Trump’s 10% blanket levy on imports, and targeted hits on steel, aluminum, and autos, are denting export-led economies. The UK, for instance, recorded its sharpest monthly GDP drop in nearly two years, tied largely to declining U.S.-bound shipments.

The World Bank, in a recent projection, warned of the weakest global economic growth since the 1960s – attributing much of the drag to uncertainty created by U.S. trade policy. Among advanced economies, Europe and North America are forecast to bear the brunt of these disruptions.

No Common Ground, Just Individual Agendas

Though the G7 historically served as a platform for joint action, including two consecutive years of Russia sanctions, that sense of cohesion is gone. Leaders are managing expectations, aiming for survival diplomacy rather than substantive multilateral breakthroughs.

The EU remains the biggest unknown. Trump recently threatened a 50% tariff on EU exports, only to dial back after a tense call with Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Talks with France’s Emmanuel Macron, Germany’s Friedrich Merz, and Italy’s Giorgia Meloni may be largely symbolic, as Brussels –  not national leaders –  drives EU trade policy. Trump’s demand that the EU eliminate VAT systems, which he views as discriminatory, adds more friction unlikely to be resolved here.

A Summit of Low Expectations and High Gamble

Protests are expected in Calgary and Banff, mirroring a growing Canadian public backlash to Trump’s increasingly antagonistic stance toward their northern neighbor. Ottawa remains locked in a tariff standoff with Washington, even as the U.S. president jokes about turning Canada into a 51st state.

The big question is whether any coordinated position on the war in Ukraine or the Middle East can emerge from this summit. If not, the absence of unity will indicate a larger reality – American leadership, once the fulcrum of these gatherings, now often acts as the destabilizing variable.

So, What Rides on This Summit?

Credibility of the G7 itself: Can it still act as a cohesive force, or is it now a stage for managing disunity?

Transatlantic relationships: Europe and Canada are walking a tightrope — trying to engage the U.S. without being steamrolled by Trump’s tariff agenda.

Support for Ukraine: Will there be even a symbolic show of unified commitment, or will Trump’s solo diplomacy undermine it?

Trade architecture: With Trump’s July 9 tariff ultimatum looming, economies from Japan to the UK are watching for clues. Failure to resolve tensions could tip several export-driven countries into deeper economic trouble.

Middle East policy: As Israel-Iran conflict looms large, any sign of convergence will be meaningful, but none is guaranteed.

The Last Bit

Let us be blunt: Success here won’t be measured in communiqués or trade deals because none are expected; in fact, Canada has already shelved plans for a joint statement, a telling signal of just how low the bar is set.

If the summit ends without a public meltdown, major diplomatic insult, or unraveling of existing agreements, many will call that a win.

The best-case scenario – quiet progress in bilateral sideline meetings; maybe a soft recommitment to Ukraine. Perhaps muted talks on trade frameworks. But don’t expect breakthrough headlines or bold declarations, this is not that summit.

This year’s G7 Summit is less about unity and more about managing fragmentation.

It is a summit of low expectations and high global bets made even more precarious by Trump’s unpredictable presence. The danger is not just that the G7 fails to solve global problems, it is that it fails to even agree they exist. So will it be a success?

Only if your definition of success is survival.