The employment outlook for 2023 is bleak, according to the most recent assessment from a UN organization.
According to the most recent data from the International Labour Organization (ILO), the unemployment rate will significantly increase this year. According to the ILO study, this year’s growth is predicted to be just 1% owing to the economic effects of the war in Ukraine, rising inflation, and stricter monetary policy. The ILO’s most recent job forecast is less optimistic than its earlier projection of a 1.5% increase for 2023.
According to the survey, inflation will reduce real earnings, increasing the number of unemployed people worldwide by 3 million (30 lakhs) to 208 million (20.8 lakhs) in 2023. This would result in an increased unemployment rate of 5.8%. “We don’t anticipate the losses lost during the COVID-19 crisis to be recovered until 2025,” stated Richard Samans, Director of the ILO’s Research Department and project manager for the organization’s recently released report.
According to the report’s conclusion, a problem connected to the cost of living would emerge and drive more people into poverty “as prices grow faster than nominal labour wages.” If the world economy weakens, the situation might get even worse, the ILO cautioned.
The recuperation from the Covid-19 epidemic, in line with ILO Director-General Gilbert Houngbo, has been substantially spotty in low- and middle-income countries and has also been impeded by climate change and humanitarian issues. The former high minister of Togo stated, “Projections of a slowdown in financial and employment growth in 2023 mean that most nations will fall short of a full return to pre-pandemic levels shortly.”
This year, nearly 3.4 billion people are expected to be employed globally, down from 2.3% growth last year. The worldwide employment shortfall was 47.3 million in 2022. This figure includes both people who are unemployed and those who wish to work but are not looking for a job, either because they are discouraged by prior failures or because they have other commitments, such as caring for family members. With a rate of 15% for women and 10.5% for men, the worldwide employment gap in 2022 was around 3.3 times higher than the level in 2019.
The present downturn forces many people to take lower-quality positions, sometimes at extremely low pay and occasionally with inadequate hours, according to the ILO. According to the survey, young adults (15 to 24) have “serious challenges” obtaining and sustaining good jobs. Two-thirds of the world’s adolescent labour force, according to the ILO, is “without a minimum set of skills,” which limits their career opportunities and forces them into lower-quality jobs. The ILO urged for a rise in investment in education and training.
Only 1% more people will be employed worldwide in 2023.
According to a forecast by the Geneva-based International Labour Organization, global employment is predicted to rise by just 1% in 2023, a dramatic slowdown from the 2.3% growth rate of 2022 because of the Russia-Ukraine war, skyrocketing prices, and tighter monetary policy (ILO). In 2024, the ILO expects worldwide employment to increase by 1.1%. The release of the study coincides with widespread layoffs at big-tech firms and startups worldwide.
The paper, titled “World Employment and Social Picture 2023,” claims that “with almost no employment growth, the outlook is bleak for high-income nations.” Contrarily, job growth is anticipated to exceed the pre-pandemic growth pattern in low- and lower-middle-income nations.
The employment-to-population ratio in the world increased to 56.4% in 2022 from 54.5% in 2020 because of substantial employment growth, although it was still approximately 0.5 percentage points below the level of 2019. A slower rate of job growth in 2023 would also suggest that the COVID-19 crisis’s worldwide disparities are not anticipated to be bridged in the following two years.
The average weekly hours per worker are anticipated to fall and stay at just around 41 hours per week in 2023, notwithstanding a recession in the global economy. When adjusted for population growth, total weekly hours worked in 2022 fell by 1.4% short of their level in the fourth quarter of 2019; this number equates to 41 million full-time jobs (at 48 hours per week).
According to the research, “this decline in activity restricts workers’ earning potential and almost certainly reduces prospects for transitions into better-quality, well-paying positions.” In contrast, it is anticipated that worldwide unemployment would go up by almost three million in 2023, reaching 208 million, or a 5.8% unemployment rate. In 2022, 205 million people were unemployed worldwide. “Global unemployment is anticipated to expand relatively little, despite the dismal outlook for the world economy,” the study said. “A major part of the shock is being absorbed by quickly declining real wages in a context of increasing inflation.”
The analysis predicts that as the global economy and employment growth stall, more employees will be compelled to take lower-quality, lower-paying occupations and will see their discretionary incomes rapidly decline, even if they can maintain their existing positions. According to the research, “the present slowdown implies that many workers will have to take inferior-quality positions, sometimes at very low pay, and occasionally with inadequate hours.”
The present gender gap will be significantly widened as a result of the global job slump. The unemployment rate for women in 2022 was 5.8%, which is 0.1 percentage points more than the rate for males. Additionally, in 2022, the worldwide jobs gap rate was 12.3%, far higher than the 5.8% global unemployment rate. According to the survey, the gender gap in employment was particularly wide for women. The gender employment disparities in 2022 were 10.5% and 15%, respectively.
“Many people may be discouraged from looking for a job or have limited availability due to personal and family obligations, including unpaid caregiving.” “These barriers disproportionately harm women, which helps to explain the wide disparity in this more comprehensive measure of labour underutilization,” states the paper.
In addition, the research claims that the persistent effects of COVID-19, the cost of living, and the geopolitical issues are “eroding” the purchasing power of disposable family income and lowering aggregate demand. According to the paper, there is a constant risk that the world’s dominant economies may pursue a policy agenda that solely addresses “their domestic concerns without appropriate regard for the possible collateral repercussions.”
Edited by Prakriti Arora